EUROPEAN DIARY:The emergency EU meeting probably generated more questions than answers writes JAMIE SMYTH
THE LATEST in a string of emergency EU summits on Sunday ended without producing any new solutions to halt the financial and economic tsunami sweeping across Europe.
EU leaders made the usual statements professing unity of purpose in the face of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. But there was no offer of extra cash for eastern Europe or a decision to loosen the rules on euro entry for states in the region.
Hungary, which went on a solo run proposing a €190 billion EU bailout fund, warned of the creation of a new “iron curtain” unless the west helped the east. But even fellow new member states criticised Budapest for making alarmist comments about the region, which yesterday sparked a new run on the Hungarian forint and stocks in eastern Europe.
Apart from offering some comfort to new member states by speaking out against “protectionism”, the summit probably produced more questions than answers. It even sparked a new debate about whether European Commission president José Manuel Barroso will retain his post when the EU executive’s mandate ends in the coming months.
“It would be better that the Irish vote first before deciding on the new commission chief,” said French President Nicolas Sarkozy in a post-summit press conference at which he suggested delaying the nomination would show respect for Irish voters.
Sarkozy also refused explicitly to endorse Barroso for a second term, although he told reporters he “likes and has confidence” in the former Portuguese prime minister.
The comments appear to conflict with an agreement brokered by Sarkozy during the French presidency of the EU at the December summit that the next commission president should be nominated immediately after the European elections.
Barroso, who has lobbied hard for a second term, is considered more likely to secure the nomination if it is made in June rather than waiting until October, the most likely date of an Irish referendum.
EU diplomats say waiting until October may enable a new challenger to emerge for the post because it would end up being one of three jobs – president of the European Council and High Representative are the others – on offer if Irish people finally vote Yes to Lisbon.
Commission insiders said Sarkozy’s comments probably reflected his anger about the EU executive’s strong criticism of France’s proposed €6 billion bailout of the car industry. The day before the summit Sarkozy agreed not to insert a “delocalisation clause” into the French aid package that would prevent French car manufacturers from accepting state aid if they planned to outsource jobs to plants in other parts of Europe. The commission subsequently approved the plan, presenting it as a victory for EU rules.
“He’s keeping the pressure on the commission by reminding Barroso he needs French support to keep his job,” said one commission insider, who did not want to be named.
But Sarkozy’s apparent change of heart about the timing of the appointment of the next commission president may be a realisation that France has more chance of scooping one of the big three EU jobs if they are appointed as part of a package.
“A package deal is probably better for France because it would be very hard for other member states to accept a French candidate for the commission without knowing where the other jobs go,” said Antonio Missiroli, director of Brussels-based think tank European Policy Centre.
He said the French minister for agriculture, Michel Barnier, or even prime minister François Fillion is a potential rival of Barroso for the post of commission president. French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner could also be a candidate for High Representative.
Getting 27 member states to agree on a single candidate for a top EU job is a major challenge as the big three – Britain, France and Germany – retain an effective veto over the process. Many member states had hoped the extra jobs created via the Lisbon Treaty would make this process easier by allowing more horse trading between capitals.
It is universally accepted that the three jobs will be handed out to candidates on the basis that they reflect a balance between different political groups in Europe; old and new member states, small and big states and a reasonable geographical spread across the Union.
Barroso’s advisers circled the wagons yesterday, insisting Sarkozy had brokered the deal at the December summit stipulating a June appointment of the commission president. They also stressed the need for stability during turbulent economic times.
But in the lead-up to the EU summit in June other voices are likely to join Sarkozy in urging a delay in the nomination of commission president. The European Parliament has already questioned a June nomination as the procedures for appointing the commission president under the Nice treaty are different than under the Lisbon Treaty. There may also be legal questions raised over whether a commission president can be appointed under the Nice treaty while the members of the commission are subsequently appointed under the Lisbon Treaty.
So while Barroso remains the clear favourite for the top EU job, Sarkozy’s comments may plant a seed of doubt in his mind and that of other powerbrokers as June approaches.