Sarkozy backing his friend Blair for new European post

European Diary : Bored from months of picking through the fine print of the EU Reform Treaty, Europe's media quickly turned …

European Diary: Bored from months of picking through the fine print of the EU Reform Treaty, Europe's media quickly turned their attention to the personalities in the running to land the plum new EU job up for grabs in 2009 if the new treaty is ratified.

"Sarkozy backs Blair - but would he be interested?" asked the Guardianabout the prospect of the former British prime minister becoming president of the European Council.

The International Herald Tribunealso noted the French prime minister's endorsement of Blair and comments by British prime minister Gordon Brown, who said Blair would be a "great candidate" for any big international job.

The new job will be filled when the treaty comes into force, which is most likely to be January 1st 2009, if there are no hitches during the ratification process.

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EU leaders will choose a candidate for a 30-month term, which is renewable once. He or she will be responsible for chairing European Council meetings, co-ordinating the council's work and representing the Union on the international stage.

French support for a British candidate for an EU job would have been unthinkable until Sarkozy's assumption to the Élysée Palace in June. The two men forged close links during Sarkozy's presidential campaign and are now firm friends. "I saw Tony Blair the night before last and he is a remarkable man, the most pro-European of all the British," Sarkozy told journalists at the summit.

"I don't know what his intentions are. But that one could think of him as a possibility is quite a smart move."

Blair's high public profile continues in his current post as envoy of the US, Europe, Russia and UN quartet in talks on the Middle East. Yet he faces considerable obstacles if he wants to throw his hat in the ring to become the new "Mr Europe", since Germany may not support him.

"Angela Merkel does not consider Mr Blair to be enough of a committed European for the job," said one German journalist at the summit. Indeed, Blair's record on Europe is weak and unlikely to impress pro-Europeans.

He shunned the euro, refused to take on the eurosceptic press and caused a deep rift in Europe by backing the US invasion of Iraq.

It will also be remembered in Brussels that his final act in office was to negotiate British "opt-outs" from the new treaty.

"He could be a bit too obvious, given that his name is out there already," says Hugo Brady, an analyst with the London-based think tank Centre for European Reform.

There are also concerns that Blair, a man used to creating headlines, might not have the necessary temperament for an EU president post that many in Brussels think would suit a backroom facilitator.

European Commission president José Manuel Barroso recently voiced concerns about the post in an interview in De Standaard. "The danger exists that the governments will handle problems among themselves, without taking into account the European institutions," said Mr Barroso, who is undoubtedly aware that the job could conflict with his own as head of the EU executive.

Berlin is much more likely to support Luxembourg prime minister Jean-Claude Juncker for the job. The longest-serving prime minister in Europe is already president of the Eurogroup - a group made up of finance ministers of states in the euro - and has impeccable pro-European credentials.

Sarkozy also intimated at the summit in Lisbon that Juncker was a good candidate for the job, although EU sceptics such as Britain, Poland and the Czech Republic may prefer a compromise candidate.

Taoiseach Bertie Ahern's comments in Lisbon that the post of EU president was a "very interesting" one will increase speculation in Ireland about a move to Europe. But he faces several key challenges in persuading EU leaders that he is the right man for the job. Ahern does not speak French, while Ireland's decision to negotiate "opt-outs" from the EU treaty in the field of justice will not impress pro-Europeans.

Fianna Fáil's relative alienation in the obscure Union for Europe of the Nations political group in the European Parliament means Ahern could lack allies when new jobs are given out.

But the Taoiseach is well regarded in Brussels. His handling of Ireland's EU presidency in 2004, which got a deal on the EU constitution and oversaw enlargement, marked out his impressive negotiating skills.

The job will be decided after Ireland's referendum on the reform treaty, and a strong "yes" vote would only improve his stature.

Other potential compromise candidates include Danish prime minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen and former Polish president Aleksander Kwasniewski. But with more than a year to go before a decision is made, perhaps the media should remember the appointment of commission president José Manuel Barroso in 2004. His name was first mentioned just days before a final decision was announced. A dark horse could yet emerge for a post that could well change the delicate power balance in Brussels.