THE battle for West Belfast will be tough and bitter. The SDLP's Dr Joe Hendron snatched the seat from Mr Gerry Adams in 1992 by 589 votes. The Sinn Fein leader's participation in the peace process is expected to help him this time but Dr Hendron will not give up without a fight. Innocent bystanders stand clear.
Both nationalist parties will work flat out and the campaign should start in earnest this weekend. SDLP activists said they bad been holding back up to now. With local elections to follow three weeks after the Westminster poll, election fatigue is a danger for election workers and members of the public.
Mr Adams will benefit from changes in constituency boundaries which have brought in the strongly republican areas of Twinbrook and Poleglass.
For his part, Dr Hendron will not suffer from the reported decision of the Ulster Unionist Party and the Democratic Unionist Party to field only one candidate between them in West Belfast. The candidate is not expected to be a high-profile politician.
The UUP's Mr Fred Cobain obtained 4,766 unionist votes out of a possible 10,000 in 1992 despite having to contend with the slogan: "A vote for Cobain is a vote for Sinn Fein."
It is reported that many Shankill Road loyalists voted for Dr Hendron, who was "the lesser of two evils" as far as they were concerned, and that their vote was decisive. The SDLP denies there was a deal with the loyalists and a spokesman said Dr Hendron sought to represent both communities in West Belfast.
Sinn Fein sources are being careful not to overplay their leader's chances. There is clearly concern that complacent republicans might stay at home, allowing the SDLP to keep the seat.
The SDLP is more upbeat. Activists say they have "every reason to believe our vote will come out".
There has been charge and counter-charge of electoral fraud and this is likely to be an issue right up to polling day and beyond. Another is: who can do more for the constituency?
The SDLP says a vote for Dr Hendron is more likely to bring prosperity, pointing to 3,000 extra jobs in West Belfast in the past 20 months. But Sinn Fein says it should get the credit for inward investment and a slick, American-style advertisement in the weekly Andersonstown News listed its economic achievements. It was a long way from the old-style greenery of republican election appeals and concluded with the slogan: "Working full-time for West Belfast, Gerry Adams gets results for West Belfast."
The constituency suffered a serious blow with the decision to close the Royal Maternity Hospital in the heart of West Belfast. "We have met with members of the Labour Shadow Cabinet and are hopeful the decision will not be carried through," an SDLP spokesman said. He accused Sinn Fein of taking a hypocritical stance on the closure since the IRA had shot up the hospital's paediatric unit in December.
Independent observers predict an Adams victory. Ironically, Sinn Fein sources are about the only ones outside the SDLP who give Dr Hendron a serious chance. "Yes, we believe we can win it but it's going to be very hard," a Sinn Fein activist said.
The Workers' Party is running its chairman, Mr John Lowry, who assails the "polluted politics" of nationalism and unionism for their failure to address the "widespread and deplorable poverty of our society".
Mr Liam Kennedy, from Co Tipperary and a lecturer at Queen's University, is standing as an Independent Human Rights candidate with a strong focus on the plague of so-called punishment beatings and shootings.
By nomination day, other candidates will no doubt have emerged but the focus will be on the Adams-Hendron contest. Whatever about the rapprochement between the Sinn Fein and the SDLP on a wider stage, there will be no peace between them on the streets of West Belfast.