Republican groups ready to pounce on Provo `sellout'

The repeated sentiment from a number of Northern republicans was that the difficulties for the Provisional republican movement…

The repeated sentiment from a number of Northern republicans was that the difficulties for the Provisional republican movement - encompassing the IRA and Sinn Fein - may only be just beginning.

The Provisionals' foray into "peaceful" political process is coming under physical attack from three groups, who will be seeking to capitalise on the "sell-out" notion seen by republicans as inherent in any agreement that includes a Northern assembly. The groups will also be trying to show they are the true inheritors of the physical-force tradition.

All three groups have a limited military capacity and are, so far, being countered by the Garda and RUC. If the Provisional IRA and the main loyalist groups remain on ceasefire, the security forces on both sides of the Border should be able to contain the dissident republican elements.

The most violent of the three groups is the Irish National Liberation Army (INLA), which has carried out four murders in the North since December. It shot dead the loyalist, Billy Wright, in the Maze Prison in December sparking off a backlash of loyalist retaliatory violence. The INLA also shot dead a former loyalist, Jim Guiney, in his shop in south Belfast on January 19th and then killed a retired RUC officer, Mr Cyril Stewart as he was shopping with his wife in Armagh on March 27th.

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The INLA's latest victim, Trevor Deeney, was not, as reported earlier this week, associated with the dissident loyalist group, the Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF). Deeney was, in fact, another retired loyalist who had been associated with the Ulster Volunteer Force, a group which has adhered to its ceasefire since October, 1994.

All four of the INLA's attacks were sectarian in nature and designed to provoke a hostile loyalist reaction. According to former members of the group, it always had a belief that fomenting sectarian violence was a way to undermine the British presence in the North. The INLA is an urban-based phenomenon with small numbers of members of mainly young men, usually jobless and with few prospects, living in the Catholic housing estates of Belfast and Derry.

The two other dissident republican groups are both based almost entirely in the Republic or in Border areas of Northern Ireland. The most serious threat from the Provisionals' point of view comes from the elements associated with the internal Sinn Fein pressure group known as the 32-County Sovereignty Committee.

It is supported by a number of figures who held key logistics and bomb-making positions in the Provisional IRA in the north Louth-south Armagh area. According to senior Garda sources, the aim of this group is to threaten the position of the Sinn Fein leadership under Mr Adams.

To this end it planned two large car bomb attacks, one around St Patrick's Day when Mr Adams was in Washington meeting President Clinton and another this week as the talks reached their climax. Both devices were intercepted by the Garda Special Branch.

The Continuity IRA (CIRA) is also based mainly in the Border area although it has a handful of members in Derry city. Like the group supporting the 32-County Committee, the CIRA seems intent on causing disruption by carrying out bombings. One thing they share in common is that both have yet to commit any murders in Northern Ireland in furtherance of their aims. This may be due to the fact that they are both largely southern-based and have not yet devised a military strategy beyond driving bombs into Northern towns and escaping back to the relative safety of the Republic.

According to Garda sources the 32County group has growing support in the midlands and south west but remains largely concentrated in the north Louth area. It is still a small organisation. The Continuity IRA has attracted a small number of Provisional IRA figures who have contributed to its effectiveness but it too is still too small to offer a challenge to the Provisional IRA. It is still not certain the Provisional IRA has completely given up on a return to violence.

According to one source there has been universal wariness in the Provisional Republican movement about the prospect of agreement at the Stormont talks. Its raison d'etre, it was pointed out, has been to end Stormont and members find it difficult coming to terms with a political process that involves the recreation of a Northern assembly.

Participation in an assembly appears to have been ruled out in the internal discussions held by Sinn Fein and Provisional IRA members. One figure denied recent reports that the Provisional IRA General Army Convention meeting had endorsed Sinn Fein's participation in a Stormont Assembly. The convention, it was said, endorsed a further three-month extension of the ceasefire. It would be re-appraised in the light of events around the Orange marching season.

The movement would not accept any dilution of the definition of Irish national territory and "as a minimum" there should be "powerful all-Ireland bodies . . . exercising significant and meaningful executive and harmonising powers alongside consultative functions".

The Provisional republicans also seek, as part of these "transitional" arrangements the disbandment of the RUC and Royal Irish Regiment and withdrawal of the British army. A newly-formed police force should have 40 per cent of its membership made up of nationalists. Progress on these issues will be closely scrutinised among Provisional republicans to see whether they should adhere to an entirely political path.