The Government has started preparing for a referendum on the Nice Treaty, which is likely to be held before the summer. The Attorney General will next month make a recommendation to the Government, in which he is almost certain to advise that a referendum is necessary.
The Taoiseach is understood to have told colleagues that they should start preparing for a referendum, although no formal decision will be taken until next month. If a vote on the treaty is held, it will not coincide with a referendum on abortion.
The referendum is likely to be held after Easter but before the summer, probably in May.
Legal experts in Brussels are finalising the text of the treaty to ensure its language is legally coherent. They may make linguistic changes, but cannot make substantive alterations.
A final text is expected to be sent to Dublin in early February for consideration by the Attorney General. The treaty changes the institutional landscape of the EU, abolishing national vetoes in a number of policy areas, and so is almost certain to have constitutional implications.
Most EU member-states will present the treaty to their parliaments for ratification. But the Government has long accepted that, regardless of the legal issues, a referendum is likely in Ireland.
Some Irish officials have expressed concern that the Commission's recommendation that Ireland be censured for its economic policies could have an impact on a referendum. But Government sources believe the treaty would win voters' support.
