Recent polls favour Sinn Fein

Up and down the nationalist Falls Road the graffiti speaks of paramilitary republicanism - "You can kill the revolutionary, but not the revolution". While along the loyalist Shankill, large murals on the gable walls honour the activities of the UVF, UDA and Red Hand Commando.

The guns are generally silent, so now politics has pre-eminence in West Belfast. Here, Mr Gerry Adams and Dr Joe Hendron join in battle once again. There is no doubting that Mr Adams MP is head honcho in this Belfast bastion of nationalism. The question is whether each can maximise the Sinn Fein and SDLP vote to fully benefit their running mates.

Sinn Fein and the SDLP are confident. In fact Dr Hendron's running partner, Mr Alex Attwood, reckons that the SDLP will spring a major overall surprise in this election, and be the largest party in the assembly. Were that to be the outcome, Mr John Hume rather than Mr David Trimble could be first minister in the assembly.

Mr Attwood insists that this is not mere pre-polling day politicking. "That's the feedback we're getting on the street, from canvasses, and from opinion polls," he says.

Four unionist parties, both pro-and anti-agreement, are also competing for a fairly slim number of unionist votes. Well over 80 per cent of the 62,000 electorate in West Belfast are nationalist. Nonetheless, there is an outside chance of a unionist taking one of the six seats.

Mr Adams and Dr Hendron, with their teams of canvassers, are striving for every vote. The Sinn Fein president has four colleagues running with him. He's aiming for four seats, and based on recent elections the party should achieve that target.

Were the proportional representation system to pan out precisely as designed then there would be one unionist seat in West Belfast.

It is estimated that there are some 10,000 unionist voters in West Belfast, most of them in the Shankill area. That would represent almost a quota-and-a-half, which in an ideal world would ensure one unionist being returned.

For the very good reason that no unionist could be elected, many unionists have not bothered to vote in Westminster elections. But with PR in this assembly battle there is an outside chance a unionist could take a seat.

But which unionist? There are so many - former Belfast lord mayor, Mr Hugh Smyth, for the PUP; Ms Margaret Ferris for the DUP; the man who caused so much trouble in the Irish courts over Articles 2 and 3, Mr Chris McGimpsey, for the UUP; and Mr Tom Dalzell-Sheridan for the UK Unionist Party.

West Belfast candidates:

Sinn Fein: Gerry Adams, Bairbre de Bruin, Alex Maskey, Sue Ramsey, Michael Ferguson. SDLP: Joe Hendron, Alex Attwood. PUP: Hugh Smyth. DUP: Margaret Ferris. Ulster Unionist Party: Chris McGimpsey. UK Unionist Party: Tom Dalzell-Sheridan. Workers' Party: John Lowry. Alliance: Dan McGuinness. Socialist Party: Mary Cahillane. Natural Law Party: Michael Kennedy.

Westminster result 1997 - Sinn Fein, 56 per cent; SDLP, 39 per cent; UUP, 3.39 per cent; Workers' Party, 1.57 per cent; Human Rights Party, 0.22 per cent; NLP, 0.2 per cent.