Gardai believe the Provisional IRA's organisation in the Republic is practically defunct and that the dissident group, which has been calling itself the "real" IRA has grown to the point where it might now pose a serious threat to the peace in Northern Ireland.
Since the group carried out its first bomb attack, on the mainly Protestant village of Markethill, Co Armagh, in September last year the Garda and RUC have intercepted 10 bomb attacks.
The amount of explosive seized has been around 7,500lbs.
But the group has carried out five large bomb attacks on the commercial centres of towns in counties Armagh and Down and has planted two small bombs on the Belfast to Dublin railway line.
It is believed the 1,400lb bomb intercepted by the RUC in Moy, Co Tyrone, at the weekend was intended for Armagh city centre.
It is not clear why the group abandoned the bomb but the RUC and British army had large numbers of road checks in the area because of the loyalist threat.
The bomb in Newry was intended to wreck the Court House which has only recently been refurbished after being damaged by a Provisional IRA bomb in the early 1990s. The car bomb left at the court entrance on Monday evening failed to explode and was later made safe by British army ordnance officers.
While the gardai have had a remarkable run of success in intercepting bomb attacks by the "real" IRA group, the three bombs in the North suggest the organisation is beginning to evade detection.
It is thought it might have switched its bomb-manufacturing to somewhere in south Armagh to avoid the highly successful Garda operations mounted against it, particularly in Co Louth.
The three bombs have concerned the gardai who had previously hoped their run of successes might frustrate the organisation before it could build a proper foundation for itself.
But there are now concerns that it has attracted support from several important figures who had left the Provisional IRA and have switched allegiance to the new group.
Garda sources confirmed that former Provisionals have joined the "real" IRA and that it is also co-operating with other dissident republicans from the Irish National Liberation Army and the "Continuity" IRA, the group associated with the small political party known as Republican Sinn Fein.
According to Garda sources it also appears that the Provisional IRA's Southern Command has, more or less, ceased to exist. The Southern Command was responsible for providing arms and explosives for the Provisional IRA in what it termed the "war zone" a notional area covering Northern Ireland and the Border counties.
The Southern Command was also responsible for supplying bombs and some of the bombers for attacks in England and for raising finance through activities ranging from running public houses to armed robbery.
It is believed that most of the Provisional IRA members in Dublin have left the organisation and either retired from terrorism or switched allegiance to the "real" IRA. Among the Dublin members are men with considerable bomb-making expertise. Two of the Provisional's top electrical engineers, men who assemble the circuit boards and timer-power units, are believed to have gone over to the new group.
Evidence has also emerged in the past week that the group's newest recruits include a number of young people who had no previous IRA or Sinn Fein associations.
There is now a concern that a new IRA organisation might be establishing itself in the Republic and in south Armagh.
This is similar to the way the Provisional IRA itself first developed in the early 1970s and gardai are worried they may be witnessing the emergence of a new and potentially highly dangerous new group.
That the new group has come into existence and is apparently stealing and using Provisional IRA explosives also suggests it is not worried about being attacked by the Provisionals who would normally be expected to murder anyone who stole their weapons.
The lack of action by the Provisionals suggests some of its members are happy to allow the weapons to pass into the hands of the newly emerging group or that it is incapable of stopping the thefts from its arsenal.
Either way, it now seems the case that the Provisionals no longer have a proper terrorist organisation or structure in the Republic.
Security sources in the North say the developments in the Republic have not yet happened in republican strongholds such as west Belfast, east Tyrone and Derry and that the Provisionals still command considerable loyalty in these areas.
But there are concerns that as the organisation goes further, perhaps irreversibly, into its ceasefire it will begin to disintegrate in the North as well and this may allow an expanding "real" IRA group to gain footholds in republican areas.