Proposal on amnesty a dilemma for Bush

A radical proposal to grant amnesty to as many as three million illegal Mexican aliens in the US is placing the White House in…

A radical proposal to grant amnesty to as many as three million illegal Mexican aliens in the US is placing the White House in an acute dilemma as President Bush weighs alienating his conservative backers against his desire to expand his Hispanic base.

The move is one of several options being considered by Mr Bush arising from a joint ministerial-level working group between his administration and the Mexican government and is strongly supported by Mexico's President Vincente Fox, who has been touring the US. The group's members include the US Secretary of State, Mr Colin Powell, the Attorney-General, Mr John Ashcroft, and their Mexican counterparts, Mr Jorge Castaneda and Mr Santiago Creel.

Its purpose is to tackle the huge illegal migration across the border and to recognise the reality that the US now depends on the labour of these undocumented workers whose status makes them extremely vulnerable to unscrupulous employers or if they need medical or other social services.

Recognition would be strongly supported by Mexican communities as well as the labour movement and the churches, but opposed by conservatives, who see it as rewarding law-breakers and who are at best ambivalent about the increasing size of the Hispanic community.

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Among options short of granting full citizenship is one to create a special guest-worker status to allow workers to migrate both ways across the border.

Hispanics backed Mr Al Gore by 65 to 35 but Mr Bush actually won half the southern Hispanic vote, a remarkable performance for a Republican.

The community's growing power is of particular concern to some advisers to the President who believe that unless he can push those figures up by 2004 he may not win re-election.

A Republican, Georgia-based pollster, Mr Whit Ayres, told the Washington Post that "nationally he could bump up from one-third to half the Hispanic vote, given the fundamental values of so many Hispanic families with their emphasis on work and family structure".

Others argue that recently naturalised immigrants will not vote Republican in large numbers and that Mr Bush may end up shooting the party in the foot.

Texas Republican, Senator Phil Gramm, describes the idea as "very bad policy". And a policy that favours Mexicans at the expense of other Latin Americans may alienate some in the latter communities.

In a move that will reassure European firms which trade with Cuba, Mr Bush has decided to renew a Clinton presidential waiver on legislation which provides for the possibility of US litigation against foreign companies breaking the US embargo on the island. The EU has repeatedly complained at the extra-territorial scope of the legislation which it argues is in breach of WTO rules.

Patrick Smyth

Patrick Smyth

Patrick Smyth is former Europe editor of The Irish Times