Poll shows big fall in ratings of Government

A majority of voters are dissatisfied with the Government's performance for the first time since the minority coalition came to power, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll published today.

Some 47 per cent of voters are dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the State compared to 46 per cent who are satisfied and 7 per cent who are undecided. This represents a 12 percentage point drop in the Government's ratings over five months, largely due to the revelations at the tribunals.

Despite the drop in the Government's popularity, however, the poll shows the Taoiseach has increased his ratings by two percentage points to 69 per cent.

While a majority of supporters of all other parties are dissatisfied with the Government, they are satisfied with Mr Ahern as Taoiseach.

The state of the parties, excluding the 20 per cent undecideds, is: Fianna Fail 47 per cent, down four percentage points since the last Irish Times/MRBI poll in June; Fine Gael 23 per cent, down two points; Labour 14 per cent, up three points; Progressive Democrats 4 per cent, up two points; Sinn Fein 4 per cent, up one point; Green Party 2 per cent, down two points; Workers' Party 1 per cent, unchanged; and Others 5 per cent, up two points.

The June poll is not directly comparable because it was conducted during the European and local elections when a simulated ballot paper was given to respondents.

The poll was conducted among a national quota sample of 1,000 electors at 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies in the State last Tuesday and Wednesday.

With the Dail due to decide to join the NATO-led Partnership for Peace next week, it shows that 68 per cent of voters, representing majorities in all parties, believe there should be a referendum on the issue. Some 59 per cent would vote "Yes" in a referendum, however, 17 per cent would vote "No", while 24 per cent don't know.

The Tanaiste and PD leader, Ms Harney, retains a high rating of 61 per cent, unchanged since June, according to the poll. The level of satisfaction with the Fine Gael leader, Mr Bruton, is 47 per cent, up four points. The Labour leader, Mr Quinn, records a personal rating of 51 per cent, down one point since June.

Mid-way through the Government's term of office, the core support for the parties registers: Fianna Fail 38 per cent; Fine Gael 18 per cent; Labour 11 per cent; PDs 3 per cent; Sinn Fein 3 per cent; Green Party 2 per cent; Others 5 per cent; and undecideds 20 per cent.

The most intriguing feature of this poll comes from new MRBI opinion poll data which have produced a new basis for the adjustment of party support figures. If a general election were held last Tuesday and Wednesday, the days of the poll, MRBI has found that the actual result allowing for the likely turnout would have been: Fianna Fail 41 per cent, Fine Gael 25 per cent, Labour 17 per cent, PDs 4 per cent, Sinn Fein 4 per cent, Green Party 3 per cent and Others 6 per cent.