Analysis: Fianna Fáil has a lot to do to restore its fortunes in Meath and Kildare, writes Mark Hennessy
Sitting in Fine Gael's Mount Street headquarters last week, party leader Enda Kenny and his closest TDs and advisers fumed about the Meath Chronicle.
The influential local newspaper's opinion poll had predicted FG candidate Shane McEntee was heading for disaster, claiming he would take just 20 per cent of the vote.
Few in politics believed it. Even Fianna Fáil thought the Nobber man was then "a few percentage points" higher.
Clearly irked, Kenny promised he would bring McEntee as the new deputy for the Royal County to meet the local newspaper's editor this week.
The visit, if it happens, will be a sweet one, since disaster in Meath would not just have been a disaster there but for the Kenny leadership itself.
Once Fine Gael got over its shock, however, the poll did have a galvanising effect on the party, which exploited McEntee's family links with the GAA to the full.
Months ago, Fianna Fáil did not believe it could win, though hopes were raised in recent weeks as its candidate, Cllr Shane Cassells, performed well.
Cllr Tommy Reilly had been the party's original choice.
He came to grief once it was learned that he had bought land with disgraced PR man Frank Dunlop.
Still upset yesterday, Fianna Fáil insisted there was no anti-Government swing in Meath.
"Our vote just didn't come out, though, to be fair, you can't take it away from Fine Gael. Its vote increased by 7 per cent," one party figure said mournfully.
A breakdown of reliable tally figures by electoral area offers some support for this analysis, though the figures also point up internal party divisions.
In Dunshaughlin, Fianna Fáil TD Mary Wallace's home area, the party won 31.39 per cent of the first preference vote, compared with 43.11 per cent in last year's local elections.
In Navan, it got 33.5 per cent, compared with 39.5 per cent last June, while the poor return around Kells, just 35.2 per cent, is partly explained by the fact that Fine Gael's Shane McEntee lives in the area.
As the new Fine Gael TD, McEntee will run in the new three-seat constituency of Meath East next time out.
His base at the more rural, northern end of the new entity will be helpful.
The youthful Cassells, who behaved with considerable dignity after the result was declared in Simonstown GAA club outside Navan before 9pm on Saturday, will not have it so easy.
If selected - one can for now presume he will be - he will have to run in Meath East alongside (but in reality against) Wallace, without the benefit of his base in Navan, where he sits on the town council.
While he did not figure in the final shake-up, Labour's Dominic Hannigan can be well pleased with his showing, boosting Labour's vote from 4.3 per cent to 11.2 per cent.
More importantly, given that he too will be running in Meath East, the increases came in the right areas. The tally figures' breakdown indicate that he won 24.4 per cent of the vote in Slane.
In last year's local elections, Labour's Shane Cassidy won 6.13 per cent in Slane, while Hannigan, then running as an Independent, took 8.34 per cent.
However, Independent Cllr Brian Fitzgerald, a former Labour TD, will eat into Hannigan's vote in his Dunshaughlin base, if he runs again for the Dáil.
Though Sinn Féin did not bother to stay around for the vote declaration, it will be reasonably pleased that Cllr Joe Reilly held the party's vote in the constituency.
His greater percentage share, up to 12.2 per cent from 9 per cent in the 2002 general election, is explained by the low poll and the fact that Sinn Féin got its supporters to go to polls, unlike so many others.
In Kildare North, Catherine Murphy, who was in the Workers' Party, Democratic Left and Labour before finally opting for life as an Independent, has achieved her Dáil ambition.
Her victory is a disaster for the main parties, since Independents are notoriously difficult to remove once they get in.
It is particularly so for Fianna Fáil, which would have held out hopes of taking two, once Kildare North becomes a four-seater.
Though Fianna Fáil's Áine Brady did not win, she has done well enough to seek a second shot on the party ticket - despite her lack of support among local party stalwarts.
On Saturday, Minister for Finance Brian Cowen probably revealed more than he intended when he said the party organisation had put "in an effort".
Frankly, that is about all one could say in its favour.
Over the next two years, Fianna Fáil will have to build an organisation in the mushrooming commuter belt, where the party currently is a mess.
It has, for instance, just two cumainn in Naas, while the situation in Leixlip is even worse.
Though Labour prefers to think about Hannigan's performance in Meath, it can take little comfort from Paddy MacNamara's performance in Kildare, which had been much-hyped and then failed to deliver.
Murphy's victory will be particularly hard to stomach for Labour TD Emmet Stagg - who is no fan of the new TD.
Stagg, literally, broke his own bones trying to get MacNamara elected.
While Fine Gael did not win in Kildare, it can be pleased that its candidate, Darren Scully, polled as well as he did, marginally increasing the party's 2002 performance.
Over the next two years, Scully, who sadly buried his mother at the beginning of the campaign, will build his base in Naas.
It could one day threaten sitting Fine Gael TD Bernard Durkan.