Varadkar and Coveney favourites to be Fine Gael leader

The race to succeed Enda Kenny as Fine Gael leader can be boiled down to two candidates going on the findings of the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll.

Leo Varadkar and Simon Coveney are well ahead of all possible rivals in the survey, and the trend is even more pronounced among Fine Gael voters.

Varadkar has a clear lead at this stage, but Coveney has a solid base of support among the electorate, particularly among voters over 65 and in the farming community.

Among the electorate, Varadkar has a lead of 31 per cent to 21 per cent for Coveney but 29 per cent of people have no opinion.

Tánaiste Frances Fitzgerald is well behind the front--runners on 10 per cent, followed by Simon Harris on 5 per cent and Paschal Donohoe on 3 per cent, with just 2 per cent opting for other candidates.

Varadkar’s lead is greater among Fine Gael voters where he is ahead of Coveney by 43 per cent to 29 per cent. Among this crucial cohort, Fitzgerald is tied on 7 per cent with Harris, while Donohoe gets just 2 per cent.

Leadership contest

Members of Fine Gael will have a vote in the leadership contest as part of an electoral college where the parliamentary party has 65 per cent of the votes; members 25 per cent; and county councillors 10 per cent.

Minister for Social Protection Varadkar is the favoured choice across all social classes with the exception of farmers and all age groups with the exception of the over-65s.

There are some regional variations with the two front-runners level among Munster voters but Varadkar has a clear lead over Coveney in Dublin, the rest of Leinster and Connacht-Ulster.

Both are marginally more attractive to men than women but Fitzgerald is decidedly more popular among women voters who plump for her by a margin of almost two to one.

Harris, who at 29 is the youngest potential leader, gets strongest support among the over-65s.

A significant proportion of voters believe Kenny will step down within the next 12 months.

When asked how long they expected him to remain in office, 46 per cent said up to a year, 28 per cent thought up to two years, 7 per cent up to three years ,and 10 per cent said more than three years up to the next election.

Another 10 per cent had no opinion.

Fine Gael voters were almost equally divided as to whether Kenny would remain for one year or two, but among supporters of all other parties the strongly held view was he would go within a year.

Adams’s replacement

When it comes to who should be the next leader of Sinn Féin, the party’s deputy leader Mary Lou McDonald emerged as the clear favourite in the poll.

Asked who they would like to see succeeding Gerry Adams if he decides to step down before the next election, 43 per cent opted for McDonald, 21 per cent for finance spokesman Pearse Doherty, and 3 per cent each for TDs Eoin Ó Broin and Peader Tóbín. One per cent went for somebody else, while 28 per cent had no opinion.

McDonald had a substantial lead over Doherty across the country with the exception of Connacht-Ulster where the Donegal TD was only marginally behind.

Across age groups and social classes, McDonald had a clear lead over her potential rival. She was strongest among the poorest DE-class voters, while Doherty was strongest among middle-class voters.

Unsurprisingly, McDonald was stronger among women voters, while Doherty was significantly stronger among men.

Among Sinn Féin voters the difference was wider than among the general public, with McDonald getting the support of 65 per cent compared to 22 per cent for Doherty.

Far fewer Sinn Féin voters were in the don’t know category than supporters of other parties.

Doherty’s strongest support came from Fine Gael voters where the gap between him and McDonald was just 7 per cent.

Among Sinn Féin voters Tóbín was in third position, while Eoin Ó Broin was on just 2 per cent.