Treat opinion polls with caution, Micheál Martin advises

Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin has urged a "strong note of caution" about opinion polls after his party recorded an increase in support in the latest survey. Mr Martin, who was on the campaign trail in Waterford on Thursday, said polls had proven to be wildly wrong in the British general election, when the Conservatives won an overall majority despite predictions of a hung parliament.

He said people were distracted by “coalition-ology”, which dominated the campaign at the expense of policy discussions.

The latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll, published on Thursday, had Fine Gael on 28 per cent, down two points from the last comparable poll in November; Fianna Fáil on 21 per cent, up two; Sinn Féin on 19 per cent, down two; Labour static on 7 per cent; and Independents and others on 25 per cent, up two.

Talk

“Let’s talk about the polls,” Mr Martin told Waterford Local Radio on Thursday. “In Britain, the polls were out by 7 per cent; 6.5 per cent to 7 per cent. All 11 polling companies were out on the eve of polling. There was an inquiry by the

British Polling Council

into how they got it so wrong.

“And what did the inquiry show? There were systemic faults in how they do polling in Britain. We don’t know what they are; we know they made a hames of it.”

He also said polling in the United States has "lost its credibility" and urged "a strong note of caution" in the Irish general election campaign.

“The people have not voted. There is a terrible rush to commentary based on polls, as if the election has happened.”

While he said he does not comment on opinion polls, Taoiseach Enda Kenny said the findings of the Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll will fire up the Fine Gael organisation. He said every party TD knows they have to fight for their seats. Mr Kenny also ruled out entering into any arrangement with Fianna Fáil, either in coalition or by relying on its support for a Fine Gael minority government.

Former minister for justice Dermot Ahern on Thursday said Fianna Fáil may have to consider supporting a Fine Gael government on a case-by-case basis after the election.

Complacency

When asked about the poll, Mr Kenny said: “This will certainly remove any complacency from the ranks of Fine Gael, and it’s far from anyone who is talking about coronations and things like that. This will fire up the Fine Gael organisation around the country. They know they have to fight for their right to be in government and that’s what they do.”

Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams said he was "not disappointed" after his party dropped two points in Thursday's poll.

Speaking in Finglas, Dublin, Mr Adams said: "I'm not disappointed. I've tried to be consistent about opinion polls from ever I heard of the word opinion poll. Some politicians will embrace the ones that they approve of and rubbish the ones they don't. Even if we came in at that 19 per cent, that's double what we have at the moment. That would be a good day."