Dare we believe it? Are we nearing the end of the government formation saga? Some members of the Fianna Fail and Fine Gael negotiating teams were smiling as they made their way back to Leinster House from Trinity College last evening.
The Irish Times leads with the reasons for those smiles: an outline of a deal on Irish Water.
The technical details are being worked on before another round of talks after lunchtime today, but both sides expressed cautious optimism last night the compromise can be finalised by the end of the week.
Fine Gael can claim a victory in that Irish Water - even if it is renamed - will continue as a national utility. It will now be a state utility, rather than a commercial semi-state. Fianna Fáil wanted it abolished.
But what of the charges themselves? It is here that it looks like Fianna Fáil has extracted significant concessions. A new charging system, based entirely on conservation, is to be built and the majority of people will end up paying nothing due to a generous system of allowances. Waivers and welfare payments are also expected.
Some observers are today suggesting it is very similar to the original water charges regime originally planned by Phil Hogan.
Fianna Fáil’s election position was that charges should be suspended for five years. Sources last night said that the suspension of charging is still on the table, but the key element is that charges will be paused while the new charging system is devised.
Oh, and another thing. Remember the brouhaha last summer over the MCT, the market corporation test to keep Irish Water off the State balance sheet?
The company remained on the State balance sheet after failing the key European test and, if finalised, the Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael deal means there is no prospect of getting it off balance sheet. This is likely to restrict the next government’s scope for budgetary movement in the years ahead.
The next step is for Enda Kenny - currently with 52 declared votes out of the 58 required to elect him taoiseach - to secure the support of enough Independent TDs to finally lock down his Fine Gael led minority government.
Labour opts out
After Labour released a statement yesterday ruling itself out of government, one party source agreed that we had clarity on where it stood on another coalition with Fine Gael.
Yet, even then, there was a little get out clause. “Clarity for today anyway,” the source said. It does seem certain, however, that Labour will not be entering government again, although it could still vote for Enda Kenny as Taoiseach in the Dáil. But this, too, may not happen if Kenny secures the votes of enough Independents.
Labour’s problem was that it was caught on the hop. It understandably went into a period of mourning after its terrible election result, which allowed both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to make the political running.
Fianna Fáil engaged it its fruitless dance of the non-aligned deputies as Micheál Martin pretended he wanted to form a government. Fine Gael - especially Enda Kenny - whispered in Labour’s ear that any new government would be so much better with them on board, after entertaining serious doubts of the durability of a government built on the foundations of Independent TDs.
By the time some in Labour got around to giving serious thought to government, Fianna Fáil had beaten it to the “confidence and supply” punch and there was too little time to convince the grassroots of the merits of re-entering government - which was always going to be a near impossible feat anyway.
Stephen Collins has a report on the outcome of yesterday's meeting of the parliamentary Labour party here. Collins notes that Cork East's Sean Sherlock raised the issue of Joan Burton's leadership, which the Tánaiste again said she will address when a government is formed.
The soundings around Leinster House yesterday were that Burton will leave and that Brendan Howlin is cool on the idea of taking the reins, although he hasn’t definitively ruled it out.
In such a scenario, Sherlock looks set to take on Alan Kelly for the leadership. Both men are aware they will have to shout in order to be heard on now crowded opposition benches.
