ANALYSIS:This election marks the party's political arrival in the Republic, making it impossible to ignore, writes DEAGLÁN de BRÉADÚN
PARTITION STARTED off as a line on a map but political cultures developed on either side of the Border which had very little in common. Even nationalists and republicans from Northern Ireland who believed in unity were more than a little lost when they came South.
Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams floundered at times when confronted with the economic complexities of the Republic. It was only one of the difficulties he faced when he made his decision to run in the general election.
There were other problems. Inevitably questions arose about his involvement in the 30-year conflict. His insistence on denying membership of the IRA provoked some derision. There were stark and painful issues in the Louth constituency where he chose to run, for example the 1991 murder of Tom Oliver from the Cooley peninsula and, of course, the “disappeared” victims of the IRA.
Outgoing Sinn Féin TD Arthur Morgan had been a rare example of a Sinn Féin candidate who was comparatively “transfer-friendly”. How could Adams, the “blow-in”, hope to attract preferences from supporters of other parties? In the early stages, a succession of radio interviews highlighted the Sinn Féin leader’s discomfort when asked about the economic crisis.
In time, Adams learned to pass the “six-markers” on the economy over to finance spokesman, Pearse Doherty. The pair turned into a double act not unlike Enda Kenny and Michael Noonan.
There were strong arguments for Adams to play it safe and cruise through the election as a type of visiting father figure, lending his prestige among republicans to the party’s candidates throughout the State.
Opinion polls rated him as one of the more popular party leaders. But, as the example of Mary Harney and the Progressive Democrats showed, this does not always translate into Dáil seats.
Efforts by Sinn Féin to promote Mary Lou McDonald as a party leader in the Republic ran into difficulties when she failed to get into the Dáil in the 2007 general election and then lost her seat in the European Parliament two years later.
The last general election was a minor disaster for Sinn Féin. Adams was publicly dissected by Michael McDowell of the PDs in a humiliating confrontation on television. Expecting to win about 11 seats, the party went to the polls with five TDs and came back with only four.
In the North, Martin McGuinness had become the key player for Sinn Féin due to his position as Deputy First Minister in the powersharing Executive and Adams was a figure of reduced relevance.
It was time for a hard decision. Sinn Féin needed a leader who was engaged with the politics of the Republic and the only person who could fill the breach at this point in time was Adams. On November 9th last, Morgan announced he would not be a candidate and five days later Adams declared his intention to stand. Earlier the same month, Sinn Féin’s Senator Pearse Doherty had won a High Court challenge to the Government’s failure to call the Donegal South West byelection. Sinn Féin and Doherty went on to win the seat on November 26th.
The economic crisis was a godsend to the party in political terms.
Initially, as the Labour Party constantly reminds Sinn Féin and everyone else, the republicans supported the bank guarantee scheme. But they changed their tune in fairly short order.
The economic policies adopted by the party were roundly criticised by its opponents as unrealistic and irresponsible. Whatever the truth of this, they had undoubted popular electoral appeal. Sinn Féin presented itself as the party of working people, valiantly fighting back against unjust taxes and other impositions by those who had allowed the banking and economic crisis to develop in the first place.
There remained doubts and concerns in the public mind about Sinn Féin’s past association with the IRA and a certain “shadow of a gunman” aura still hung about the party as a result. However, very few of the current crop of candidates have IRA backgrounds and this undoubtedly helped in attracting first preferences and transfers, along with the fact that the peace process is well-established and bedded-in up North at this stage.The party’s approach has paid off with a substantial gain in Dáil seats, including a poll-topping performance by Adams. Sinn Féin is a new political force in the Republic – not on the same scale as in Northern Ireland, of course, but no longer possible to ignore.
SINN FÉIN
Projected seats:14 (2007: 4)
Share of first preference vote:9.9% (2007:6.9%)
PARLIAMENTARY PARTY
Gerry Adams (Louth)
Michael Colreavy (Sligo-North Leitrim)
Seán Crowe (Dublin South West)
Pearse Doherty (Donegal South West)
Dessie Ellis (Dublin North West)
Martin Ferris (Kerry North-West Limerick)
Pádraig Mac Lochlainn (Donegal North East)
Mary Lou McDonald (Dublin Central)
Sandra McLellan (Cork East)
Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin (Cavan Monaghan)
Jonathan O’Brien (Cork North Central)
Aengus Ó Snodaigh (Dublin South Central)
Peadar Tóibín (Meath West)