Sources in the Progressive Democrats profess not to know what their former chairman, combative spokesman and ideological engine Michael McDowell is up to. For a man who has said he favours a return to private life, he is going about it in an odd way, they say. In the last month he has become involved in several public controversies, some of which have brought him into direct and bitter confrontation with his party leader, Mary Harney.
He has led the opposition to the Government's proposal on cabinet confidentiality while Ms Harney supported it.
He suggested the Government was being run "out of the handbag and the hip pocket" of the Coalition leaders. Harney retorted that he had used abusive and sexist language. He has opposed the presidential candidacy of Prof Mary McAleese, describing her as a "deep green nationalist". Harney says she would make a fine president. McDowell says: "I do not agree with the party's choice."
The deterioration of the relationship between McDowell and Harney has alarmed those in the party who see a long-term future for it.
McDowell's confirmation that he will cease to be a party member from March 31st next will dismay many members further.
The party has not yet recovered from its devastating June general election performance. It has four Dail deputies, at least one (Desmond O'Malley) has said he will retire at the next election, and the intentions of another (Bobby Molloy) are unclear. A commission is investigating the party's election performance and its future. There is deep anger in sections of the party at the election performance, and the leadership is blamed by many for the catastrophe.
The party failed to counter suggestions that it was out to withdraw benefits from unmarried mothers and fire many civil servants, the dissidents say.
McDowell is seen as the highestprofile casualty of the party's poor performance. He lost his Dublin south east seat narrowly to John Gormley of the Green Party. He is known to feel that he was let down by the party's national performance, and to blame the leadership - and Harney herself - at least partially for the party's and his personal disaster.
McDowell may say he wants to return to private life, but his recent high public profile appears to contradict this. "He is deeply upset by the loss of his seat," said one party source, "but it's hard to imagine him walking off the stage for good. It's just not him".
McDowell himself says he has no political plans, but has not unequivocally ruled out a political role in the future.
When he lost his seat in 1989, he said he was quitting politics but returned quickly to become his party's "public conscience". While PD ministers were in government, McDowell kept the party's distinct identity alive outside the Dail, making regular public statements, speeches and radio and television appearances.
This also contributed to the destabilisation of that government. Even if he had been willing to resume this role now the leadership would probably have been reluctant to allow him.
Senior party figures have insisted since the election that they wanted McDowell to remain active in the party, but what role they had in mind for him is not clear.
Meanwhile, dissidents say that the party's performance in Government has not restored their confidence in the leadership. On its favourite ground of ethics in politics, the party did not define a clear position for itself during the recent Ray Burke controversy. Sources supportive of the leadership maintain that carving out a separate position for itself on such issues this early in the lifetime of the Government would be disastrous.
The party needs a long run in Government, both to make an impression on public opinion and to give the organisation time to recover and rebuild before another election, they say. If that involves remaining silent on some issues, they say, so be it.
But with one senior Cabinet Minister it is difficult to see how the PDs, as a party as opposed to a group of individuals, can make a distinctive impact on public opinion during this Government's lifetime.
McDowell's supporters believe they can only do it effectively with McDowell's involvement. According to Alan Robinson, a councillor from his Dublin South East constituency: "Michael McDowell is someone who speaks for a huge section of the Progressive Democrats, not just the rank-and-file membership or local representatives like myself but also some senior figures."
He appears unwilling to speak for them in the future.