As the two major parties of the left progress steadily towards a merger, an envious eye will be cast next week towards Tony Blair, and Britain's hugely successful New Labour, when the prime minister arrives in Dublin on an official visit. The leader of our new Labour, Ruairi Quinn, hopes he can follow him and, if not exactly sweep into power at the next election, at least take second place by squeezing both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael.
Is it possible? Are the big parties worried? Well, up to a point. Highly placed sources in FF and FG see no immediate threat. If there was a surge to Labour, they say, it would have occurred when Quinn took over, and the merger, a consolidation rather than an expansion, won't make it happen. Despite the retention of the name Labour, many observers view the merger as really a reverse takeover by Democratic Left in that all their major players, who are formidable performers, appear very well fixed electorally, at the expense of their new colleagues. For this reason an initial move to the left is expected which will define politics here to a greater extent and, the big parties hope, reduce competition in the middle ground. Some pundits believe however that if Quinn wants to move into second place he will have to veer right instead of left (so squeezing FG), and woo the middle classes.
So where, as some of the real lefties are asking, does that leave the left? Well, there is the danger, as others see it, that it opens the way for more community-type fringe candidates and even an expanded Sinn Fein. A large number of unaligned deputies auctioning their support to the highest bidder is never a pleasant thought given this week's performance by Jackie Healy-Rae.
But if Quinn wants to be Taoiseach it seems a move towards the centre is, as the British PM proved, the way to do it. That would hurt FG, their Rainbow partners, as it claims the social democratic centre, but would make it easier for a FF/Lab coalition in the future.