NORTH ANALYSIS:Politicians on all sides have not yet ruled out possibility of having role in coalition government, writes GERRY MORIARTY,Northern Editor
NORTHERN IRELAND leaders were last night weighing up whether they might still have some “kingmaking” role in who should be the next British prime minister as the British Conservatives and Labour sought to form the next British government.
One well-placed SDLP source insisted last night it was still possible that Labour could be returned as the British government with the support of, among others, the three SDLP MPs, independent unionist Lady (Sylvia) Hermon and new Alliance MP Naomi Long.
“It may be a long shot but the possibility of a Labour government supported by the Liberal Democrats, the SDLP and some other Northern Ireland MPs is not out of play yet,” he said.
Before the sensational loss of his seat to Naomi Long of Alliance early yesterday morning, the DUP leader and First Minister Peter Robinson had calculated that his party would have a critical role in a hung parliament in determining who would form the British government.
It was expected that this would be in the context of the DUP supporting Tory leader David Cameron to be the next British prime minister.
Mr Robinson and senior DUP politicians were last night “taking stock” after the election in which the DUP performed relatively well, winning eight seats, notwithstanding the unexpected loss of Mr Robinson’s seat.
Mr Robinson had said he would “exploit” a hung parliament for the benefit of the people of Northern Ireland.
DUP sources said the party had not reached any decision on how it would now act in terms of a hung parliament but equally they did not rule out the possibility of the party’s MPs supporting Labour “if the price were right”.
While it was clear last night that a Conservative-Liberal Democrat arrangement would be sufficient for David Cameron to be prime minister there was still a possibility that Labour could return to government in a rainbow coalition that would involve some Northern MPs.
And while Sinn Féin, who won five seats after holding Fermanagh-South Tyrone by four votes, was yesterday holding to its abstentionist position some degree of pressure is likely to fall on the party president Gerry Adams to consider shifting from this stance.
After the count in West Belfast, which Mr Adams won very comfortably, he indicated that the party would hold to its abstentionist position.
Earlier in the campaign he had said, “we are not going into Westminster as long we have a mandate not to go in”.
Mr Cameron appeared to be the frontrunner last night to be the first Tory leader since 1997.
But it is possible that Labour and the Liberal Democrats, with some combination of support from Northern Ireland MPs, could return a Labour leader to 10 Downing Street.
Were Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg to reject the overtures of Mr Cameron, possibly over the issue of electoral reform, it would fall on Gordon Brown to determine whether he could win sufficient support from Northern Ireland MPs to form a government.
In such a situation – and in a number of possible combinations – the SDLP’s three MPs and new Alliance MP Naomi Long could have a critical role.
At the time of writing Labour and the Liberal Democrats had a total of 315 votes.
The Liberal Democrats is Alliance’s sister party and Ms Long’s and Lady Hermon’s votes, together with the three votes of the MPs from the SDLP, who also generally take the Labour whip, would give the party 319 votes.
Support from the Scottish National Party’s six MPs would provide a Labour majority, with Plaid Cymru’s three MPs strengthening that majority if it also supported Labour.
But if the DUP were to form a loose expedient House of Commons alliance with the SDLP MPs, and Lady Hermon and Ms Long were to support Labour in return for commitment on the multibillion-pound block grant and other matters, then there remains an outside possibility that Labour could still be returned.
The DUP could potentially be minded to endorse such a rainbow arrangement given that Mr Cameron previously warned of public sector cuts for the North.
This arrangement could be more acceptable to Labour because doing a deal that involved the Scottish Nationalist Party and Plaid Cymru could involve constitutional commitments which Mr Brown or a new Labour leader would be reluctant to pledge.
As far as Labour is concerned there are now no constitutional matters to be considered in relation to Northern Ireland MPs.
Lady Hermon indicated to The Irish Times yesterday that she would support Labour.
“Obviously I would not be supporting Mr Cameron in his efforts to form the next government. Instead, I’m waiting and watching to see how the Lib Dems now respond to Gordon Brown’s overtures,” she said.
New SDLP leader Margaret Ritchie said she would “do what is best for Northern Ireland in the next parliament in Westminster”.