Nervousness rises over today's decision on future of policing

In the context of Northern Ireland, the phrase "biting the bullet" may have unfortunate connotations.

In the context of Northern Ireland, the phrase "biting the bullet" may have unfortunate connotations.

But that is what Mr Peter Mandelson is expected to do in the House of Commons this afternoon when he stands up to give his response to the Patten report on policing.

Already yesterday unionists were becoming edgy. They were not unlike people who had an appointment with the dentist but had been told that supplies of anaesthetic had run out. Even making the point to them that the announcement might not match the advance publicity seemed to provide little comfort. Experience suggested differently.

On the republican side there was still some residual scepticism. Let's wait and see, Gerry Adams cautioned. It is understood that signals from London to republican representatives have indicated there will be a fairly full-blooded implementation of the report. But there is disturbing talk about a gradual approach to some of the recommendations, which is helping to keep alive the old suspicions of Perfidious Albion.

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Besides, whatever the Northern Secretary may say today, the proof of the pudding will be in the legislation expected in November.

The pain on the unionist side will be intensified with further announcements expected next week on the "normalisation" of security in Northern Ireland. But if the motto "no pain, no gain" holds true, there may be comfort for the unionists at the end of the day.

Having endured the broad implementation of Patten and steps towards normalisation, unionists will no doubt take the opportunity to claim the moral high ground and renew their demand for decommissioning on the part of the IRA.

That is how Mr Trimble and his friends could in theory win out in the end, by appealing to public opinion along the following lines: "We have taken the hard knocks, now it's the IRA's turn."

There is at present no evidence to suggest that decommissioning ahead of the Ulster Unionist Council meeting on February 12th is on the cards.

That has not stopped the two governments from trying to extract as much as possible from the republican side - and senior officials have effectively taken a vow of silence on their efforts at a compromise.

The idea of putting weapons "beyond use", which first surfaced at Hillsborough last Easter, is now back in vogue. The legislation requires, however, that arms be rendered "permanently unusable", and it is difficult to see how republicans are going to agree to anything along those lines.

Police reform amounts to a substantial section of the Belfast Agreement, leaving the Patten Commission and, by extension, the British government, very little room for cherrypicking.

The agreement specified that police symbols should be such as to ensure support for the force from the community as a whole. In line with that, Patten recommended a change of name from Royal Ulster Constabulary to the Northern Ireland Police Service.

It is understood the commission considered and rejected the title Police Service of Northern Ireland, but the latest indications are that the latter has won the day.

"Show me the money" is the underlying message coming from the RUC staff associations, and no doubt this was put across with some force at yesterday's negotiations in Stormont House between senior civil servants and police officers' representatives.

Generosity in such payments will be critical in efforts to change the composition of the force. At present it is 92 per cent Protestant, and one of Patten's aims was to achieve a balance reflecting the make-up of the community at large.

Patten also proposes reducing the force over 10 years, from the current level of almost 13,000 to 7,500 full-time officers.

This will not be achieved unless attractive redundancy terms are available. While expensive in the initial period, there will be substantial savings down the road.

Many of the recommendations in the Patten report are, of course, uncontroversial and reflect good policing and management practice around the world.