There was strong speculation in Belfast last night that Senator George Mitchell may conclude the present stage of his review of the implementation of the Belfast Agreement today, provided the Ulster Unionist leader, Mr David Trimble, has agreed to sell the deal worked out at Stormont to his party.
There were indications also that the UUP leader had decided to advise his party to accept the package. The expectation was that the review would be adjourned until January so that it could be resumed in the event of failure by republicans to fulfil their commitments on decommissioning. However, sources cautioned that, given the fraught situation inside the UUP, the senator's departure might be further delayed. "I wouldn't bet the house on it, given Trimble's track record," a political insider said.
While there has been no official undertaking to publish the details of the various statements and moves agreed in the talks, it was considered likely that the texts would be published soon, certainly in time for the expected Ulster Unionist Council meeting on November 27th. As a senior source put it: "They won't be buying a pig in a poke."
Details of the statements have been leaking out to the media since the middle of last week. They include a declaration of support for the Sinn Fein leadership from the IRA and a commitment to appoint an interlocutor to represent the paramilitary organisation at Gen. de Chastelain's decommissioning body.
There would be a Sinn Fein statement disowning violence in general and so-called "punishment" beatings in particular. There would also be a commitment to the principle of total decommissioning by May 2000 in forthright language - "stronger than last July" - as part of the implementation of the Belfast Agreement.
An executive and cross-Border bodies would be established early next month. There would be progress reports from Gen. de Chastelain on the decommissioning issue, the first expected next month and the second in January.
Contrary to some reports, the IRA statement would not declare that the "war" was over. Nor would it contain any reference to decommissioning, much less an explicit commitment to carry it out.
The debate within unionism over the coming weeks will inevitably focus on the likelihood that the agreed package would ensure the disposal of a quantity of IRA weapons under the gaze of Gen. de Chastelain in the near future. Weekend reports that the IRA would unilaterally decommission by the end of January generated ripples of concern in republican circles. While the leaks were apparently intended to shore up Mr Trimble's position, republicans found them most unhelpful with their own followers. "In the round they are inaccurate," Sinn Fein sources said.
The developing scenario appeared to be that if the unionists walked out of the executive over the decommissioning issue in January, the review would resume and the issue would be teased out further.
No support could be found in any reliable quarter yesterday for suggestions that the IRA would unilaterally decommission by the end of January. However, the establishment of the new institutions would be expected to lead in the longer term to the effective disappearance of the IRA from the scene, with weapons being disposed of in a manner which had no connotations of surrender.