Ministerial Council the new battlefront

There are no obvious winners or losers in the Stormont talks agreement and all parties can say, like the curate when asked about…

There are no obvious winners or losers in the Stormont talks agreement and all parties can say, like the curate when asked about his egg, that "parts of it are excellent".

The conflict was in stalemate. The IRA could not win, neither could it be defeated. The only way out was through negotiation and for that to be a success, both sides had to be able to claim victory: the proverbial "win-win" situation. However, nothing stands still in life and while this agreement may to a large extent take the gun out of Northern politics, the battle between nationalism and unionism will continue.

The main area of battle will be the North-South bodies and the key to evaluating the agreement is to examine its provisions in this regard. The main issues are: how much autonomy have these bodies got? can they be aborted or impeded by a unionist bloc in the Assembly? can they expand to become a government for the whole island?

In the UUP policy document of February 11th North-South bodies were not even mentioned and the unionist approach was that they should be no more than talking shops, meeting at infrequent intervals to discuss minor matters where minimal co-operation was, if not unavoidable, certainly voluntary.

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The final document contains a good deal more than that, if not quite as much as nationalists, and particularly republicans, would wish. Nationalists won their demand to have the North-South Ministerial Council established by legislation at Westminster and in the Oireachtas, thereby at least ensuring that it would not be a forgotten sub-committee of the Assembly.

Nationalists also won the requirement that participation in the council be an essential responsibility of Ministers in the new northern administration. All council decisions are to be "by agreement between the two sides". It would probably be better from a unionist viewpoint if unanimous agreement had been specified as there will clearly be a tendency for Northern nationalist ministers to want to line up with their counterparts from Dublin on particular issues.

All ministers will be subject to "the rules for democratic authority and accountability" in the Assembly and the Oireachtas. Further on, in some fairly tortured language, the document permits ministers to take decisions within their "defined authority". Where ministers sought to go beyond that, Assembly approval would be required but "through the arrangements in place for co-ordination of executive functions", which implies that the executive committee of the northern administration would play at least a mediating role between an adventurous nationalist minister and angry unionist Assembly members.

The council will meet in plenary format, with heads of government participating, twice each year but, in specific sectors such as tourism, it will come together "on a regular and frequent basis". Unionists will doubtless make much of the fact that the first duty of the council will be "to exchange information, discuss and consult". This sounds like one of Bertie Ahern's "ad hoc chat shows" but nationalists can point to the provision allowing the council "to take decisions by agreement". There could be some fat legal fees derived from arguing over this part of the agreement.

Nationalists wanted the council to come into operation at the same time as the Assembly - or even before - lest the time lag allow unionists to sabotage the new body. This demand - yet another indication of the great lack of trust between the two traditions - is incorporated into the document.

The document also lays down that a work programme be undertaken by the council, "covering at least 12 subject areas". By October 31st the council must identify and agree these areas, propose implementation bodies where they do not already exist and draw up a substantial list of projects. The implementation bodies will be set up by legislation at Westminster and in the Oireachtas.

Thus October 31st is going to be a significant day in the history of this island, and we may have to wait until then to find out who really won the late-night tug-of-peace last week.

Mr David Andrews got himself into trouble by stating that the north-south bodies would be "not unlike a government" and a major question for both nationalists and unionists is whether an all-Ireland administration can develop out of them. The answer is Yes, but only by consent: "Any further development of these arrangements to be by agreement in the council and with the specific endorsement of the Northern Ireland Assembly and Oireachtas".

The council will receive funding from the two administrations and the extent of that funding may prove to be another battleground. There will also be a standing joint secretariat of civil servants from north and south - although this will obviously not be located at Maryfield - and there is a hint that the council may have its own representation at "relevant European Union meetings".

The Assembly and the Oireachtas will consider setting-up a joint parliamentary forum, along the lines of the British-Irish Interparliamentary Body and there may also be a north-south consultative forum representing the social partners and experts in various fields.

Militant nationalists are bound to be somewhat disappointed at the modest list of topics suggested for north-south co-operation. Animal health, teacher qualifications, inland waterways and accident and emergency services are not the commanding heights of social and economic activity. Tourism is the weightiest topic on the list, except perhaps for the one called "relevant EU programmes".

But nationalist supporters of the Agreement argue that the potential for further growth is there, to which pro-Agreement unionists can counter, "not without our consent." At the end of the day, it all comes back to trust. This Agreement is an acknowledgment by both communities in the North that there is no way around one another: unionists can't be driven into the sea, nationalists can't be cowed into silence. Great political tests of strength lie ahead: the shooting may be over but the shouting has only begun.