SIX MONTHS into her second term as chancellor, Angela Merkel faces a crucial confidence vote tomorrow when 14 million voters go to the polls in the western state North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW).
After Berlin agreed a controversial €22 billion loan for Greece yesterday, final opinion polls have left NRW’s ruling Christian Democrats (CDU) facing an uncertain future. Losing power in Germany’s most populous state would rob Dr Merkel of her upper house majority, slowing to a crawl already sluggish policymaking.
By way of contrast, the capital’s last political act before tomorrow’s election showed just how quickly German politicians can act when they have to.
In just one day the lower and upper houses of parliament, the Bundestag and Bundesrat, voted to pass the emergency loan Bill for Greece – €22.4 billion over three years, one fifth of the total EU package. Parliamentary messengers hurried the Bill across town from one chamber to the other before a final stop at Bellevue Palace for the signature of President Horst Köhler.
In the Bundestag, the opposition Social Democrats (SPD) abstained from the vote in protest at the government’s refusal to incorporate into the Bill a finance transaction levy. “We have to use this opportunity to put a stop [to] those who have made Europe their prey,” said SPD leader Sigmar Gabriel.
Dr Merkel dismissed the move as a distraction, saying the vote was about “prioritising the security of the euro”. Aware that two-thirds of Germans oppose bailing out Greece, she has tried to frame the discussion as a “battle against speculators”.
In the end 390 MPs backed the Bill, 72 opposed – mostly from the Left Party – and 139 SPD MPs abstained.
The effect of the Greek loan on NRW voters is as unclear as the election outcome itself.
After five years, it looks increasingly unlikely that state governor Jürgen Rüttgers will return to power in Düsseldorf with his partner of choice, the Free Democrats (FDP). Their promises to transform Germany’s former industrial powerhouse have been hobbled by huge financial difficulties.
Meanwhile, Mr Rüttgers’s clean-hands reputation took a hit with leaks of party documents promising companies opportunities to meet the state governor for a fee.
The CDU fought a content-free campaign, dominated by an ideological row over education.
The Social Democrats (SPD) ran a personalised campaign around leader Hannelore Kraft, hoping to distract voters from unpopular economic reforms that last time ousted them from power in NRW after 40 years.
Final polls showed two likely outcomes: an SPD coalition with its choice of partner, the Greens, or a CDU-SPD grand coalition.
Either result would be a mixed blessing for Dr Merkel. A CDU-FDP defeat would allow her to force her FDP coalition partners in Berlin to dismiss demands for large-scale tax cuts.
On the other hand, by postponing painful and unpopular decisions until after tomorrow’s NRW vote, a resulting Bundesrat policy block could end Dr Merkel’s second term before it ever really started.