Men may close life expectancy gap with women by 2030

THE LONGER life expectancy enjoyed by generations of women may soon be coming to an end. Male life expectancy is rising rapidly and could match that of women by 2030.

Lifestyle changes are thought to be the cause as women embrace male-like behaviours, smoking and drinking more but eroding their age-at-death statistics as a consequence.

Les Mayhew, a professor of statistics at Cass Business School, analysed life expectancy data for England and Wales. He calculated expectancy from age 30 rather than birth, leaving out the deaths arising from childhood illnesses and from a reckless youth.

The age gap at death between the sexes topped out at almost six years in the 1970s, but things were changing rapidly, he said. Life expectancy was rising generally but that for men was rising faster, with a six-year improvement over the past 20 years.

If things continued as they were, then women and men would share an expectancy of 87 years by 2030, Prof Mayhew said. “One of the main reasons I think is the trend in the prevalence of smoking,” with smoking by men in decline as it rises among women.

This trend is also seen in the Irish statistics, said Sinead Walsh, research manager at the Irish Cancer Society. “There are more women smoking and the numbers are increasing,” she said. “There are now more women dying from lung cancer than breast cancer.”

This change arose for the first time in 2007 according to the National Cancer Registrys 2011 report. Lung cancer has now become the main cause of cancer death in women outnumbering breast cancer deaths by 6 per cent, Ms Walsh said.

Early last century the female/male gap in Ireland barely favoured women with the average age at death 57.9 years versus 57.4 years respectively, according to figures from the Central Statistics Office. By 2006 the gap was clear to see with women dying on average at age 81.6 years compared to men at 76.8 years.

This difference is “universally observed”, said Prof Cecily Kelleher of University College Dublin’s Geary Institute in the school of public health, physiotherapy and population science. “You look at life expectancy at middle age across continents and you see this gap.”

The consistency of the age gap seems to have a genetic component, but lifestyle is a powerful influence. “There is clearly a biological difference; of the total gap about two years could be put down to biological reasons,” Prof Kelleher said.

A larger share can be attributed to bad habits, voluntary lifestyle choices related to tobacco, drink and diet. Societal changes have also helped, however, with more men working in offices than down coal mines, in forestry or in maritime employment.

Better health care has also pushed up life expectancy across the board, helping men to live longer than in the past. Prof Mayhew pointed to cardiovascular disease which typically affects more men than women. Medical advances meant men with the condition live longer with the disease than in the past.