The first Irish Times/MRBI campaign opinion poll, conducted two weeks ago just before nominations closed, and which did not include Derek Nally on the survey ballot paper, showed Mary McAleese ahead on a net 40 per cent, followed by Mary Banotti on 27 per cent, Adi Roche 25 per cent and Dana (Rosemary Scallon) 8 per cent. Further analyses at the time indicated that, had the election been held then, Mary McAleese would have been elected on the third count. The survey published today was undertaken last Saturday, October 11th, just halfway through what has been a rather leisurely campaign.
One of the first messages from this survey is that the undecided figure has increased by four points to 17 per cent, which is not inconsistent with the lacklustre campaign to date, and may indicate either a higher-than-average lack of interest, or more hopefully a wait-and-see attitude by many of the electorate.
This general conclusion is further reinforced by the fact that the eleventh-hour entry of Derek Nally, who has to date attracted 3 per cent net support, has influenced the support levels of just two other candidates, Adi Roche and Mary McAleese.
Core support trends over the past two weeks, which are set out broadly in Tables A and B, are summarised below:
Decimals are shown for illustrative purposes only, in the interests of strategists, but the overall statistical variation of plus or minus 3 per cent still applies. Against this background it is evident that the main inroads have been made in Adi Roche's support levels, with Mary McAleese also down marginally (i.e. within the variation of the sample).
In the previous survey I commented that campaign strategists would have been unhappy with the level of support each of the party nominees was receiving from their relevant parties, and that many potential voters at the time were thinking of voting across conventional party lines.
This trend is certainly continuing, and with the non-party nominees, Derek Nally and Dana, sharing 14 per cent core support between them, the three party nominees are currently experiencing relatively high levels of disloyalty from party supporters.
Neither Mary McAleese nor Mary Banotti has improved her respective positions among supporters of Fianna Fail or Fine Gael since the last opinion poll, and both continue to receive just 50 per cent from the respective sources. Furthermore, among Labour voters Adi Roche's support has deteriorated from 42 per cent to 33 per cent, while PD support for Mary McAleese has also dropped from 56 to 24 per cent, albeit on a low base.
Final planning procedures are likely to be further complicated by the following:
One in eight Fianna Fail supporters continue to support Mary Banotti and Adi Roche, and one in 10 remain undecided.
Fine Gael has relatively fewer undecideds, but a fifth continue to opt for Mary McAleese, and a further fifth are supportive of Derek Nally or Adi Roche or Dana.
More than one in five Labour supporters now favour Mary Banotti; slightly less than a fifth for Mary McAleese, with a further one in six favouring Derek Nally or Dana.
Although Mary McAleese has lost just 3 per cent support during the past two weeks, she has noticeably moved towards taking the young (under-34) vote, a position held by Adi Roche two weeks ago. Although the Dublin vote continues to be shared by the two Marys, each has lost support in the capital in recent weeks, mainly because Derek Nally has moved into third position on 11 per cent.
The overall situation is that if the election had been held last weekend, Mary McAleese would have been elected on the fourth count. However, her odds may have lengthened somewhat since she is rather less secure than was the case two weeks ago.
Unless something unforeseen happens, she will certainly top the poll on the first count.