THE decision by Sir Patrick Mayhew to ban all marches and public demonstrations on the walls overlooking Derry's Bogside may limit an outbreak of violence this weekend, but it will do nothing to improve relations between the two communities.
The fact that the ban was imposed at all reflects a defeat for the political process and the influence of senior churchmen and community leaders.
Having watched their co religionists being batoned out of the way on the Garvaghy Road last month, nationalists are flexing their muscles. They appear determined to pay the unionists back in their own coin.
Two weeks ago in the Dail, John Bruton spoke of the damage done to community relations by people parading through areas where they were not welcome. Such actions, he said, led to "competing threats of violence and disruption".
As had happened at Drumcree, the RUC was forced to yield to "the greater threat of disorder" and the basic tenets of democracy were breached.
In relation to the Apprentice Boys march, it would seem the Northern Ireland Secretary has now yielded to "the greater threat". Derry is a predominantly Catholic city. If the march was hallowed to go ahead against the wishes of the nationalist community, trouble would be guaranteed. Rather than allow a Derry powder keg to blow away all hopes of a resumed peace process in the autumn, Sir Patrick took action.
The Government was anxious to distance itself from that decision. A spokesman said no requests had been made by the Government, and no advance notice had been given of the ban.
Official sources also expressed concern over tomorrow's nationalist march in the city, which could lead to a blockade of the bridge over the river Foyle. The organisers would have to ensure that it was entirely peaceful, they said, and did not worsen the situation.
The Government has been walking a thin line on this one, trying to respect the traditions, heritage and beliefs of unionists at a time when nationalists are incensed over Orange marches.
A few days remain before the Apprentice Boys are due to parade on Derry's walls, and strenuous efforts may produce a formula which would allow the walk to pass off peacefully. But given the failure so far of negotiations between the Apprentice Boys and the Bogside Residents Group under Mr John Hume chairmanship the prognosis is poor.
The dogs in the street are noising a return to violence. The two, communities have become so polarised by the events surrounding Drumcree that civil unrest is almost inevitable. In such circumstances, the Government is, desperately trying not to get sucked into events outside its control.
As the situation worsened in recent days, the Bogside and Ormeau Road Group called on, the Government to send observers to Derry. Southern politicians should get off their backsides" and go North to "ensure that the RUC do not go out there and provoke our young lads".
The Government had no intention of becoming the meat in the sandwich. Ministers will not travel North. But Government representatives there will carefully monitor the situation.
Mr Bruton advised members of Fine Gael to stay at home, but representatives of other parties will travel. A delegation of six TDs may go from Fianna Fail, whose deputy leader, Mary O'Rourke, suggested that Government Ministers might also attend.
For weeks, the Government and opposition parties have recognised the threat posed by the march. But the nationalist anger which has fuelled the present intransigence appears to have taken them by surprise. They did not anticipate being on the defensive as the cliff edge loomed.
Negotiations in Derry broke down over whether the march should be dealt with as a local issue or as part of a wider problem. The Apprentice Boys sought agreement on their traditional Derry march. But the Bogside Residents' Group broadened the agenda, saying the Apprentice,
Boys must negotiate with nationalist communities across the North and "accept our right to, withhold consent for their marches if that is our desire."
At a time when the British government has announced the establishment of a commission to review the issue of contentious marches the demands by the combined Bogside Residents, Lower Ormeau and Garvaghy Road groups looked suspiciously like a pre emptive strike.
Mr Home attempted to deal with the march as a local, single issue. The Government backed this approach, with a spokesman recalling that both the Taoiseach and the Tanaiste had "on a number of occasions expressed support for the idea of a local agreement". As of now, there is little prospect that such a rational approach will be adopted.