If the police blame the IRA for the Northern Bank robbery, there will be major political repercussions, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor.
The PSNI, conscious of the added political dimension to any statement blaming the IRA, has so far refused to say specifically which organisation it believes carried out last month's £22 million (€31.49 million) robbery from the Northern Bank headquarters in Belfast.
The raid - one of the largest robberies ever carried out in Britain or Ireland - took place on December 20th.
Nearly all of the stolen money was in Northern Ireland banknotes, including around £13 million in new notes.
It is still uncertain whether the PSNI Chief Constable, Mr Hugh Orde, will feel in a position to make a definitive call by the end of this week on who is to blame. He will only do so if he feels his intelli-
gence on the robbery is "watertight", it is understood.
"When you are dealing with such a big haul it is obvious that the Chief Constable will want to be absolutely sure that he has his information right," said one source yesterday.
If Mr Orde says the IRA was involved, then it seems virtually certain that there will be no immediate chance of breaking the political deadlock in order to restore a power-sharing administration at Stormont.
Mr Orde must realise that blaming the IRA entails a huge political, as well as security, call because it would cause major political fallout. Unionists would contend that republicans were never serious about a political deal, and Sinn Féin would respond in kind, most likely insisting that the charge against the IRA was politically motivated.
Such a climate of recrimination would almost certainly put back until after the British general election, expected in May, any chance of a deal to restore devolution.
In such a case the next political opportunity for agreement may not come around until September or next year.
A DUP Assembly member, Mr Sammy Wilson, said that Mr Orde must not hold back on releasing information for fear of the political consequences.
"If the IRA was involved then the public has a right to know, and it is up to the politicians to then decide to move on and leave Sinn Féin/IRA behind," he said yesterday.
"Given the frenetic denials by the IRA, the fact that despite the security and political implications the police have carried out raids on high-profile IRA homes, it is fairly certain that the IRA was involved," added Mr Wilson.
"We are seeing a rerun of the Stormont spy ring and the Colombian affair.
"In both cases vehement denials were issued by Sinn Féin/IRA. The usual tripe about securocrats trying to destroy the peace process was spewed out, and then it became clear that not only were those involved in the IRA but were associated with Sinn Féin.
"No doubt the same is going to happen again," Mr Wilson said.