Labour set to fix poll date for March

Two by-elections with implications for Government stability are likely within six weeks as Labour prepares to force the setting…

Two by-elections with implications for Government stability are likely within six weeks as Labour prepares to force the setting of the poll date for March 12th.

Labour leader Mr Ruairi Quinn will meet the party's director of elections in Dublin North before making a final decision. He met senior party officials in Limerick East at the weekend and also canvassed with the party's candidate in the constituency, Cllr Jan O'Sullivan.

Labour could force a date on the Government, as the Limerick East by-election is to replace a Labour deputy, the late Jim Kemmy. Traditionally the party of a deceased or retired deputy is allowed to move the writ in the Dail for the by-election.

If Labour moves its writ, Fianna Fail will probably respond by moving the writ for the Dublin North by-election, caused by Mr Ray Burke's resignation.

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Speaking in Limerick at the weekend, Mr Quinn said: "I would like to see this election over and done with by St Patrick's Day. And we will be taking the necessary action to see this comes about."

If Fianna Fail did not move the writ for Dublin North "and if they try and block the writ, it will simply confirm . . . that they are scared and don't want these two by-elections", he said.

The by-election results could have a major impact on Government stability. The present Dail arithmetic, in which Independents Mr Harry Blaney, Ms Mildred Fox and Mr Jackie Healy-Rae normally support the Government, effectively gives the Fianna Fail-PD coalition 83 Dail votes with 80 against them.

Were Fianna Fail to lose the two by-elections that majority would be cut to a single vote. But should the Government parties win both their likely margin of victory in Dail divisions would be increased to five votes.

Labour believes its candidate in Dublin North, Mr Sean Ryan, has a good chance of regaining the Dail seat he lost in last June's election.

The Limerick East contest is seen as between Ms Sandra Marsh (Fianna Fail); Senator Mary Jackman (Fine Gael); and Cllr Jan O'Sullivan (Labour). Democratic Left's Mr John Ryan and Mr Tim O'Malley of the PDs also claim to have good chances.

In the meantime, the Government will consider amending the new legislation limiting the amount election candidates can spend after the commission supervising its implementation warned it was unworkable.

The Public Offices Commission wrote to the Minister for the Environment, Mr Dempsey, recently highlighting difficulties it has found with provisions on the 1995 Ethics in Public Office Act. Under the Act candidates for election to the Dail are allowed to spend £14,000 to £20,000, depending on the size of their constituency.

The new law says this limit applies to spending "at any time before the issue of the writ or writs in relation to the election". This could be interpreted as covering spending on constituency information campaigns throughout the period of the Dail, the commission says, and it would be difficult to decide what constituted election and non-election spending over such a period.