Knife-edge election to decide fate of Serbs

SERBIA: Serbs will elect a pro-EU liberal or a Russian-friendly ultra-nationalist as president tomorrow, in a vote that is expected…

SERBIA:Serbs will elect a pro-EU liberal or a Russian-friendly ultra-nationalist as president tomorrow, in a vote that is expected to decide their country's political and economic path.

"We find ourselves at a crossroads," incumbent president Boris Tadic said in a final televised debate with rival Tomislav Nikolic.

"The European path has no alternative, it contains all our hopes. The years of isolation must be over once and for all."

Mr Nikolic, who leads the far-right Radical Party while its founder, Vojislav Seselj, stands trial for war crimes, accuses Mr Tadic of being pushed around by a Brussels and Washington that back supervised independence for the mostly Albanian region of Kosovo.

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"I have nothing against the EU and their values, but I have only one demand: do not touch our Kosovo," Mr Nikolic shouted at his last campaign rally.

While Mr Nikolic vows to sever ties with the EU and US if they recognise Kosovo's imminent declaration of independence, Mr Tadic says he will not let his personal opposition to the decision derail Serbia's bid for EU membership.

In an attempt to boost Mr Tadic's chances, Brussels has delayed a final decision on Kosovo's status and is offering to sign a deal with Belgrade next week which would promote closer ties and visa-free travel in the EU for Serbs.

Polls suggest the election is on a knife-edge, with Mr Tadic a whisker ahead of his rival - who won the first round of the election a fortnight ago.

While Mr Tadic (50) promises progress towards EU integration to his 7.5 million people, Mr Nikolic offers a foreign policy that balances cautious relations with the West against much closer ties with Russia, Serbia's main ally in opposing Kosovo's sovereignty.

"Russia is our friend who will prevent the United States and the European Union from taking Kosovo away from us," Mr Nikolic said recently.

A former ally of Slobodan Milosevic, ex-cemetery manager Mr Nikolic (55) draws support not only from Serbia's many nationalists, but from rural and urban poor whose lives have only got harder since Mr Milosevic was ousted in 2000, when he was replaced by broadly pro-Western leaders like Mr Tadic.

Almost one million Serbs are officially jobless, and the average monthly wage is about €450.

"Most Nikolic supporters are not extreme nationalists, they are the losers of the transition period," said Belgrade analyst Dragan Popovic.

"They have no job and no prospects. Now they want something new, and Nikolic represents some kind of change."

Victory for Mr Nikolic would not only draw Serbia closer to Moscow, but also apparently dash western hopes of seeing the likes of Ratko Mladic tried for war crimes.

The EU has refused to sign a pre-accession deal with Belgrade until it captures the fugitive general, who is accused of leading the 1995 Srebrenica massacre of Bosnian Muslims.

Mr Nikolic insists that he will not search for a man whom he considers to be a war hero.