DR Radovan Karadzic, the Bosnian Serb leader who is wanted for alleged war crimes, defied Western governments this weekend by restructuring his government in a manner intended to reaffirm Bosnian Serb opposition to the Dayton peace agreement.
The shake up caused Dr Karadzic to relinquish some of his formal authority as president, but it appears unlikely that he is about to drop out of public life altogether.
It seems even more premature to suggest that the West is much closer to bringing him to trial by the United Nations war crimes tribunal in The Hague. Moreover, even if Dr Karadzic were to step down in the near future, there is little prospect that his successors would be any less committed to a policy of militant Bosnian Serb nationalism.
This became clear on Saturday after a pre-dawn meeting of the Bosnian Serb assembly in Pale, where Dr Karadzic secured the appointment of Mr Gojko KIickovic, a hardliner, as his new prime minister. He later announced that he was delegating some of his own presidential powers to Ms Biljana Plavsic, an equally uncompromising nationalist ally.
"It is not a serious change. I think that Biljana Plavsic, to the extent to which she will substitute for him, is hardly a change. She is very close to Karadzic. They are virtually the same," said Mr Stojan Cerovic of the respected weekly Vreme.
"Plavsic often sounded more radical than Karadzic. I think that Karadzic is retaining control and that it is no big concession towards greater co-operation," he added.
Aides of Mr Carl Bildt, the international mediator who is responsible for implementing civilian aspects of the Dayton settlement, contested the view that the leadership changes meant Dr Karadzic had given little away.
"We believe that this is the beginning of the end of the influence of Dr Karadzic on the political scene. Mr Bildt is continuing to ensure that this sidelining of DT Karadzic is ratified and consummated," said Mr Colum Murphy a spokesman for Mr Bildt.
Failure to secure Dr Karadzic removal from power would gravely damage Mr Bildt's authority and undermine the Dayton agreement. The peace terms require Dr Karadzic and other indicted war criminals to give up public office and be turned over to the tribunal in The Hague. However, the 60,000 Nato peace forces in Bosnia have not been entrusted with the specific task of tracking down and arresting the accused men.
Dr Karadzic had stayed largely out of the public eye for several months until last Wednesday, when he engineered the dismissal of his prime minister, Mr Rajko Kasagic. Mr Bildt and Western governments had cultivated Mr Kasagic as an alternative Bosnian Serb leader, seeing him as a relative moderate on the Bosnian Serb political landscape.
Meanwhile, a senior European Union official in the divided Muslim Croat city of Mostar said on Saturday that elections to help reunite the city would be postponed from their scheduled date of May 31st. Mr Hans Birchler, legal adviser to the EU mission in Mostar, indicated that the Muslims' refusal to field candidates was the reason. However the Spanish head of the EU mission, Mr Ricardo Perez Casado, later denied that a decision to postpone the vote had been reached.
. Mr Djordje Djukic, the Bosnian Serb general indicted on suspicion of involvement in war crimes, has died in Belgrade after a battle against cancer, the Bosnian Serb SRNA news agency reported yesterday.