Judgment day looms for peace process

During one of the recurrent crises in the peace process, Tony Blair reportedly asked a senior Sinn Fein member: "Who the hell…

During one of the recurrent crises in the peace process, Tony Blair reportedly asked a senior Sinn Fein member: "Who the hell ever started this decommissioning issue anyway?"

Mr Blair was probably joking because he must know his predecessors in government first brought the issue into play, when Sir Patrick Mayhew asked during a speech in Washington for a partial handover of guns from the IRA as an earnest of good faith.

As John Hume never tires of pointing out, no other Irish party which has been drawn into normal politics from the paramilitary world has ever decommissioned. There were, of course, suspicions that Fianna Fail, Clann na Phoblachta and Official Sinn Fein (later Sinn Fein - The Workers' Party), in their turn, were ultimately plotting the overthrow of democracy: like the Nazis they would insinuate their way into the corridors of power and then stage a coup against the institutions.

None of these suspicions was borne out. The same charge is levelled at Sinn Fein, which is suspected by some of having a game-plan to get into the heart of government, North and South, and then institute a regime of green fascism.

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Those of us who watch Sinn Fein close up sometimes doubt it could organise a drinks reception in a brewery. But the question is a serious one: are Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness for real when they purport to lead their movement into normal, democratic, constitutional politics?

The answer is probably Yes, not least because the two Sinn Fein leaders are risking everything, including their lives, in this endeavour, which they started, with John Hume, in the late 1980s. Government leaders, most recently Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern, and officials with access to security information have accepted the bona fides of Adams and McGuinness as aspiring politicians whose goal is to lead their movement on to a strictly constitutional path. That presupposes the ultimate disbandment or withering-away of the Irish Republican Army, an objective the two governments would certainly seek. The question is whether events this week have brought that goal closer or pushed it back?

The answer is still in the balance. Bertie Ahern and his new Minister for Foreign Affairs, Brian Cowen, have been to the fore in the negotiations with the republican movement. Political insiders say they have been looking for words and deeds from the IRA.

There were comforting words from P. O'Neill in a statement this week, but they were not comforting enough and lost much of their impact through being couched in that impenetrable "provo-babble" which has characterised republican pronouncements since the peace process began.

Further words, it appears, were secured - not without difficulty - by the Taoiseach in his contacts with republicans on Thursday, and this enabled him to fly to England for his meeting with Mr Blair.

Recently we have heard more about the "clarity" sought from the IRA as to its intentions on the weapons issue. Insiders believe a date for the start of decommissioning was sought, with a view to inserting it into the next report from Gen de Chastelain. The logic being that republicans have always said the arms issue should be left with the general, so how could they complain if he published a start-date? Close observers of the republican scene believe it is a bridge too far.

Gerry Adams sounded like a man preparing his audience for the worst yesterday, when he accused Mr Mandelson of undermining his efforts to negotiate with the IRA by charging republicans with betrayal in the House of Commons.

Informed observers expressed concern about the consequences if the pressure on the IRA does not work. "What are we left to deal with if the institutions collapse?" they asked.

Adams and McGuinness would start to lose the argument inside republicanism, and there was no knowing the end result.

Judging from past experience, by the middle of next week the other participants in the process may have to decide whether to accept words without deeds from the IRA, or turn them down and launch a crusade against republicanism.

The prospect of casting the Provisionals into exterior darkness and setting up a coalition of the Ulster Unionists and the SDLP has been the dream of many unionists and some nationalists for a long time.

But even some unionists who would like to see such an outcome dismiss it as unrealistic: Sinn Fein is too strong at this stage.

A tempting possibility for elements in the Establishment would be to demonise Sinn Fein to such an extent that it was demolished in the next Westminster election. But then the IRA would return to full-scale violence.

There was speculation on Thursday night that Mr Mandelson would make a holding statement rather than announce the start of the legislative process for suspension. Republicans claim this was their understanding. But anything less might not have preserved Mr Trimble.

There were suggestions last night that Mr Adams would shortly meet the First Minister. These encounters can sometimes be a dialogue of the deaf, but things are much too serious now for posturing. Mr Adams will presumably have something to offer the UUP leader, who will have to weigh his options carefully. He has won the moral high ground, but this can be lost very quickly.

But whatever prospect might exist in theory for decommissioning farther down the road, he can almost certainly forget about it in advance of the Ulster Unionist Council meeting on February 12th.

It may turn out in the end that the people of Northern Ireland and indeed the whole island are less interested in who is sitting around the cabinet table than in the fact that bombs are not going off. One thinks of the great post-war cartoon where the war-weary soldier presents the message of peace to his country with the appeal, "Don't throw it away".

In the next few days, that could happen.