Japanese exports showed a rare sign of recovery in March, government figures showed this morning, suggesting that the global slump in trade may be easing.
Exports were almost half the levels of a year earlier but the finance ministry said seasonally adjusted shipments were higher in March than February, the first monthly rise since May last year - a rare positive for the economy battling its worst recession since World War Two.
Sales to China and the United States fell sharply compared with a year earlier, but the falls were smaller than those in February, which some analysts said showed that Beijing's huge stimulus package was starting to benefit Japan.
“It will take more time for exports to make a full-fledged rebound as overseas economies won't recover any time soon,” said Takahide Kiuchi, chief economist at Nomura Securities.
“But we expect exports to make a moderate pickup near-term with sharp falls having stopped due to easing strains from the global financial shock, falling inventories and big stimulus packages compiled across the globe.”
Exports fell 45.6 percent from a year earlier and imports dropped 36.7 per cent. Both declines were smaller than forecast and smaller than the record falls in February.
That produced a trade surplus of 11 billion yen ($111.9 million), down 99 per cent from a year earlier. Economists had forecasts a 5 billion yen deficit.
Japan's big manufacturers have been hit hard by the worst global downturn since the 1930s. But they expect output to rise in March and April after slashing inventories at a record pace, underlining hopes that the worst of the crisis may be passing.
Global stock markets have rallied on hopes the global downturn may be nearing its bottom. Tokyo's Nikkei average has gained nearly 24 per cent since hitting a 26-year closing low in March.
Such sentiment may be reflected this weekend in a meeting of the financial heads of the Group of Seven rich nations. Euro zone countries are likely to tell Friday's G7 meeting the crisis may be at its worst now and a recovery could follow, although
Japan and the United States may not share such optimism, a G7 source said.
Reuters