Israel will need tacit support of Hamas to pursue new plan in Jerusalem

ANALYSIS: The catalyst for Israel’s U-turn on Gaza was the botched raid on the aid ship bound for the Strip, writes MARK WEISS…

ANALYSIS:The catalyst for Israel's U-turn on Gaza was the botched raid on the aid ship bound for the Strip, writes MARK WEISS

WHEN FORMER Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin expressed the hope that he would wake up one day and find that “Gaza had been swallowed by the sea”, he was echoing the sentiment of many Israelis.

The latest proposals by foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman, head of the right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu party, represent the most comprehensive strategy to date from a mainstream Israeli politician to disengage fully from Gaza.

In the summer of 2005, right-wing prime minister Ariel Sharon began the process when he decided to act unilaterally, without consulting with the Palestinian Authority. Israeli troops withdrew from the Gaza Strip, ending 38 years of occupation, after removing Jewish residents from 21 settlements.

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But if Israelis thought they had washed their hands of Gaza, with its 1.5 million hostile residents, mainly refugees, the reality on the ground proved different.

The conflict continued, as did Gaza’s dependence on Israel, which controlled all the crossing points, with the exception of the Rafah terminal on Gaza’s southern border with Egypt.

Israel imposed economic sanctions after Hamas won a stunning election victory in 2006 and then seized power from Fatah the following year.

Israel’s attempt to disengage had failed, and after thousands of rockets were fired by militants, Israeli troops invaded the territory in December 2008, killing some 1,400 Palestinians in three weeks of clashes.

But the catalyst prompting Lieberman’s dramatic U-turn was the botched commando raid on a ship carrying humanitarian relief to Gaza on May 31st last, which resulted in worldwide condemnation of Israel after nine Turkish activists were killed.

Israel announced it was easing the blockade, but with more flotillas planned throughout the summer there was a growing realisation that the current policy was simply untenable and was strengthening, not weakening, Hamas’s hold on power.

A radical rethink was required.

Prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu has not publicly endorsed Lieberman’s plan, but it is clear the foreign minister would not have floated such ideas without consulting his boss.

Lieberman’s plan is similar to the disengagement undertaken by prime minister Sharon, in that both men preferred to act unilaterally without consultations with the Palestinian Authority. Both men shared a deep distrust of the Palestinian leadership.

Lieberman has made it clear that in his view there is no chance of a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians in the discernable future.

It is doubtful that the Fatah-controlled Palestinian Authority would lend its support to a plan that effectively grants recognition to a Gaza controlled by its bitter rivals, Hamas.

Sharon was able to act unilaterally because at the time Israel controlled Gaza and called the shots.

But if Lieberman’s plan is to succeed it will need at least the tacit support of the Hamas leadership in Gaza, and the backing of both Egypt and the international community.

The initial response from Hamas was not encouraging.

The response of the international community may be clearer after the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Catherine Ashton, hears details from Lieberman in the coming days.