Indonesia coup remains unlikely despite Wiranto's refusal to leave cabinet post

Normally when a general defies an order to resign from a government it means a showdown and a possible coup.

Normally when a general defies an order to resign from a government it means a showdown and a possible coup.

But Gen. Wiranto's refusal to leave his cabinet post, despite the express wishes of President Abdurrahman Wahid of Indonesia, has left him, rather than the President, dangling in the wind.

A coup attempt is still possible but most unlikely because of the consequences - political isolation, the drying up of international finance, and a popular insurrection throughout Indonesia.

The military has already been humiliated by a government inquiry which on Monday implicated Gen. Wiranto and five other generals in a campaign of murder and arson in East Timor last year. It is widely blamed for stirring unrest throughout the most troubled provinces of Indonesia in an attempt to undermine the country's fledgling democracy.

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Gen. Wiranto called a news conference in Jakarta yesterday after President Wahid said on Monday, when visiting Switzerland, that he would ask the general to step down from his post as Co-ordinating Minister for Political and Security affairs. Gen. Wiranto said yesterday he would not act until he had sought clarification. To some observers, sacking a powerful military leader when out of the country amounts to irresponsibility, but others see Mr Wahid's actions as a sign of the ebbing of the military's prestige for the first time in Indonesia's 50-year history.

"You couldn't imagine two years ago Mr Wiranto being sacked by a civilian leader," commented the Speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly, Mr Amien Rais, who is also out of the country, visiting Tokyo. "Now, I think Mr Wiranto and his colleagues understand very, very well that democracy always demands that the military is subordinated under the civilian."

Financial markets were not so sure and took a tumble on fears of a coup but there were no signs of military activity reported around the capital, Jakarta. Gen. Wiranto appeared to be looking to legal rather than military redress when he told reporters that his lawyers would launch "a harsh protest" over the inquiry's conclusions.

The independent inquiry found systematic military involvement in last year's campaign of terror in East Timor after it voted to end 23 years of Indonesian occupation.

The allegations against Gen. Wiranto, who was head of the armed forces at the time, and other generals and militia and political figures, have been referred to the Attorney General, Mr Marzuki Darusman, for further investigation and possible prosecution. Another reason a coup is unlikely, observers believe, is that, for the generals, court action in Indonesia may be the alternative to appearing before an international tribunal.

Mr Wahid's frequently stated confidence that there will not be a coup may be based on the fact that the generals are in his debt for his insistence that Indonesia and not the UN should handle the cases.

The US may also have played a part. After the UN announced on Monday that a UN human rights committee had recommended an international court, the US Ambassador, Mr Richard Holbrooke, as well as the UN Secretary-General, Mr Kofi Annan, made it clear a UN tribunal should not be considered if Indonesia brought its own citizens to court.

Beijing said yesterday it was opposed to setting up an international human rights tribunal on East Timor. It is unwilling to set any precedents which could encourage independence movements in Tibet and Xinjiang Province. But China, which has a veto on the UN Security Council, would have found it more difficult to justify its position if Indonesia had refused to take action.

East Timor's political leaders yesterday condemned the UN decision to allow Indonesia to take the lead in prosecutions. Mr Joao Carrascalao of the National Council for Timorese Resistance (CNRT) said it would seek to reverse the move, "otherwise it will set a precedent for other countries to do the same if the time arises for them to commit crimes".