Impressive Ugandan leader faces toughest test in today's election

For 15 years he has ruled without question, loved by his people for delivering them from tyranny and admired by the West for …

For 15 years he has ruled without question, loved by his people for delivering them from tyranny and admired by the West for his progressive ways.

But today President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda faces his greatest challenge yet, at the close of a bitter electoral contest that has tarnished his reputation as a great African statesman.

Dr Col Kizza Besigye, Mr Museveni's one-time personal physician and comrade-in-arms, has become his political nemesis. Dr Besigye has taken about 40 per cent of support in newspaper polls and emerged as the only serious opposition contender in today's presidential poll.

Dr Besigye has tapped into a groundswell of popular discontent. Official corruption, involvement in the Congo war and the failure of economic success to trickle into every pocket have fed a growing feeling of impatience.

READ MORE

"He should quit while he is still liked, but he is overstaying his welcome," said an accountancy student, Mr Joseph Katabira (22), at a recent Besigye rally.

Mr Museveni has been accused of pulling the levers of government to tilt voting in his favour. The state media have lionised him while opposition supporters complain of harassment. Violence is feared in Dr Besigye's hometown of Rukungiri today, following a shooting by government troops. Nevertheless, observers stress that incidents of harassment are few compared with most other African elections. The fierce campaign has focused on personalities. Dr Besigye cuts a stiff figure beside the charismatic Mr Museveni, whose trademark is a wide-brimmed safari hat. There are more personalised differences, too.

Dr Besigye's wife is Winnie Byanyima, a sharp and eloquent MP seen by Ugandans as a Hillary Clinton figure for fuelling her husband's ambitions. But during the bush war of the early 1980s Ms Byanyima was Mr Museveni's personal assistant and lover, a relationship that ended shortly after he came to power.

The heat of campaigning has seen the gloves come off between Mr Museveni and his opponent. "Besigye is suffering from AIDS," he was quoted as saying in last week's issue of Time magazine, "and Winnie is just a nasty lady." Dr Besigye did not deny the allegation but retorted that HIV should not be an election issue, and wondered aloud whether about Mr Museveni's own HIV status.

Dr Besigye has been careful to give Mr Museveni his well-earned dues. Uganda is a textbook example of Third World development. Since 1992 poverty levels have dropped by 20 per cent, primary school attendance has doubled and the President has spearheaded an HIV prevention campaign that is the envy of Africa.

Uganda has become a favoured destination for Western development aid. Donors contributed 40 per cent of the government budget this year, of which Ireland is giving £19 million, more than twice as much as in 2000.

But Mr Museveni's greatest achievement has been to deliver peace and stability to a country subjected to 15 years of despotism under Idi Amin and Milton Obote.

The odds still favour a Museveni win. And most observers predict the elections will pass off peacefully. "It's an imperfect election process," said one Western diplomat, "but on balance it will reflect the will of the people."

But should Mr Museveni only scrape a win there are fears of Uganda being propelled back to the dark days of instability. "A winning margin of just 2 or 3 per cent will be very dangerous," the diplomat said. "In that situation there is a real danger of violence."