Saudi Arabia and Iran are footing the bill to fly home expatriates in the hope of swaying Sunday's election, writes MICHAEL JANSEN in Beirut
FLOCKS OF overseas Lebanese are descending on Beirut’s Rafik Hariri airport ahead of Sunday’s parliamentary election.
They come from Brazil, the US, Canada, Britain, France and the Gulf, their expenses paid by the ruling and opposition blocs.
Driving into town they see the Lebanese flag paired on overpasses with the yellow and green banner of Hizbullah, ruler of the southern suburbs. A few billboards feature group photos of Hizbullah candidates, serious-faced men in suits and ties. Faded posters of independents grace lamp posts. The border of the Beirut municipality is marked with a billboard bearing a photo of candidates from the ruling Future Movement headed by Saad Hariri, son of former premier Rafik who was assassinated in 2005.
The homecomers and the money used to bring them here could very well decide the neck-and-neck race between the pro-western, Hariri-led coalition and the Hizbullah-led opposition alliance. A few weeks ago pollsters predicted a narrow win for the opposition, which consists of the Shia Hizbullah, the secular Shia Amal movement, a Maronite Catholic party headed by former general Michel Aoun, and the Greek Orthodox Syrian Social Nationalist Party. Today the election is too close to call. The ruling coalition of Maronite, Sunni and Druze factions has boosted its prospects by recruiting diaspora voters.
Pollster Abdo Saad, of the Beirut Centre for Research and Information, says expatriates and money could decide the election. “If those who live in Lebanon vote and there is no vote-buying, the opposition would definitely win.” Of the 128 seats in parliament, 104 were decided months ago. Due to the country’s sectarian system and the map of its clans and ward bosses, most seats are fixed assets. This leaves 24 bitterly contested seats in five districts. Christians make up the swing vote.
Most but not all the returnees are Christians who could go for candidates either of the ruling coalition or of Hizbullah’s ally, Gen Aoun, who remains the most popular Maronite politician although his support has slipped recently.
Muhammad Mashnouk, an independent analyst, says the 2005 election was conducted “under the impact of the assassination” of Rafik Hariri, enabling the pro-western coalition to win. But, he observes, the “blood of Hariri” has diminished as a rallying cry.
The closeness of the race prompted US secretary of state Hillary Clinton and US vice-president Joe Biden to pay high-profile visits to Beirut during the past two months with the aim of boosting the Hariri coalition. However, this may have backfired. Hariri supporters know Washington is on the coalition’s side while its opponents and independent-minded Lebanese resent what they see as overt US intervention.
By contrast, Saudi Arabia, ally of the Hariri bloc, and Iran, aligned with Hizbullah, are relying on covert, indirect means to influence the poll. Syria, Iran’s regional ally, is using whatever political clout it enjoys to the advantage of the opposition in the expectation that Damascus will reap the reward of enhanced ties with Lebanon.
A wag quips: “Saudi Arabia and Iran pay the money and Syria takes a commission.”