Ice maiden's mask slips over the collapse of institutions

Two interviews stand out from the last week

Two interviews stand out from the last week. One was Seamus Mallon's clearheaded, trenchant declaration that a small number of militarists cannot be allowed to impede democratic politics. The second was the petulant outburst by Bairbre de Brun on Saturday View: David Trimble was a control freak and the cause of the collapse of the institutions.

When Austin Currie intervened to challenge this somewhat simplistic view, the ice-maiden's mask slipped: "Who is controlling this programme?" she interjected angrily, before going on to repeat the mantra about Trimble. The republican leadership, after its own miscalculation, is now lashing out in every direction except in the direction of that rump in its own ranks that attracted Mallon's ire.

By the week's end the blame was deftly being shifted to Peter Mandelson's door. Unfortunately, in the Dail Bertie Ahern seemed quite willing to allow himself to be associated with that view. This stance may be calculated to keep the republican movement inside the tent. Or it may be a calculation that, if we are headed into a prolonged period of recrimination, a bit of Brit-bashing never did Fianna Fail's fortunes any harm.

Either way, it's a long way from the optimism of Frank Fahey and other ministers earlier in the week that the suspension was likely to be reversed "within days". John Bruton, by common consent in here, made the best extempore speech in response to the communication that the IRA had withdrawn co-operation from and contact with Gen. de Chastelain. Drapier, however, is not at all convinced that the note in the Dail Chamber was the first Bertie had heard about it. It was certainly odd that Bertie took offence only when Bruton became offended on his behalf.

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Facilitating stories that Mandelson jumped the gun is hopefully the end of the blame game. Is it being seriously suggested that Mandelson could have persevered on the basis of de Chastelain Mark II? Mandelson judged that an imprecise formula would not save Trimble and certainly not at the 11th hour. The only alternative to Trimble in these circumstances would be a rejectionist leader. In such circumstances the institutions would inevitably be plunged into disarray and would collapse under the weight of their own contradictions.

Had Mandelson been presented with de Chastelain Mark II a week earlier, perhaps he would have had some prospect of success.

On Friday evening, with the Trimble resignation letter burning a hole in the pocket of the Ulster Unionist Council chairman, Mandelson knew he had no chance. Trimble had painted the Northern Ireland Secretary into a corner. Had he behaved otherwise he might never have received the slim mandate to proceed with the executive in the first place. We really can't judge that one.

Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness miscalculated. They seem to have believed that, as Martin Ferris and Pat Doherty put about in America, once the institutions were set up, the unionists would never collapse them and the prevarication on decommissioning could go on indefinitely. When reality dawned it was too late and the 11th-hour concession offered was insufficiently clear. A month earlier, in a different climate, it would very probably have been enough to facilitate progress to the next stage.

The retaliation in the form of breaking off contact with de Chastelain may have gone down well in South Armagh and West Belfast. In the Republic it has gone down like a lead balloon and a mighty propaganda offensive is now under way to win back lost ground. Bertie Ahern's interpersonal skills have served him well in his furthering of the peace process but he would be well advised not to lend himself and his office too readily to this propaganda drive.

Bertie's interpersonal skills are also needed in another area.

Minister for Finance Charlie McCreevy refuses point blank to meet the leadership of the credit union movement. The resolution in face of a Fine Gael motion is that Bertie himself must do the business. McCreevy is piqued that the leadership of the credit unions left him with egg all over his face in his first Finance Bill. As Michael Noonan put it, he has been sulking ever since. He would also seem to be taking pleasure in the discomfiture of the same credit union leadership, now threatened with investigation by Brussels.

However, the fracture is also evidence of the deteriorating relationship between Taoiseach and Finance Minister. In the face of mutterings from the Independents, Charlie bluntly told Bertie he could meet the credit unions himself. McCreevy won't forget how Bertie acquiesced in his Budget humiliation.

In the talks for a new partnership deal Bertie also had to take charge. To leave McCreevy and Mary Harney in charge - Michael D. Higgins's Alliance Francaise - was to risk frightening the horses.

Drapier will be surprised if Bertie, the Great Conciliator, doesn't take on board the thrust of the Bill published this week by Labour northside Deputy Tommy Broughan on so-called "joy-riding". This is the scourge of many working-class urban areas and the simple provision that it be made an offence to supply an underage person with a vehicle for use in a public place will cause the motor industry and others to think twice.

Broughan's party leader, Ruairi Quinn, pointed to the £280 million earmarked for a national stadium and the sporting and community infrastructure that could be put in place in the worst-afflicted urban areas for this kind of money.

Meanwhile, the long-awaited Planning and Development Bill proceeds through the House to more criticism than might have been expected from its high-profile launch. Labour's Eamon Gilmore claimed that Noel Dempsey's press and public relations advisers cost £571,238 last year.

Drapier has also noted an exceptionally large and regular attendance by outside lobbyists and other representatives as the huge Copyright Bill grinds its way through committee stage. Like most of his colleagues, Drapier regards intellectual property law as an arcane pursuit. But there must be money in it, or so many sharp suits would not be in regular attendance.