Hope of breakthrough rises

North peace talks: Confirmation that President Bush will meet the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, in Belfast on Monday…

North peace talks: Confirmation that President Bush will meet the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, in Belfast on Monday has dramatically raised expectations of a breakthrough in the Northern Ireland peace process

The somewhat muted official Downing Street line was that the President's presence would underline "an important week" in prospect for Northern Ireland.

However, Number 10 sources did not deny that the presidential visit would add significant pressure on the parties there - and in particular on Sinn Féin and the IRA - to deliver the "acts of completion" necessary to restore the North's devolved government after the Assembly elections on May 29th.

At the same time, the Prime Minister's official spokesman insisted the decision to stage this war-and-peace summit in the North did not imply prior agreement by the parties to the "shared understanding" document to be unveiled by Mr Blair and the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, following the Hillsborough summit still scheduled for Thursday.

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Asked if this was "payback time" for Mr Blair, and whether the British and American administrations would invest such political capital in a possible failure in the North, Mr Blair's spokesman insisted: "We are taking nothing for granted."

Downing Street clearly calculates that unionists will draw comfort and reassurance from the sight of Mr Blair and President Bush reviewing the progress of the allied war effort in Iraq on their soil. It is believed this will be the first time that a British prime minister and an American president will have met to discuss international affairs in Northern Ireland.

But while this is of potentially huge symbolic significance, some senior Ulster Unionists said privately last night they were nervous that this unprecedented event could put pressure on the two governments to accept a political outcome which might still prove insufficient for the Ulster Unionist leader, Mr David Trimble.

It is understood Mr Blair and President Bush agreed at Camp David two weeks ago that their next face-to-face meeting - to review the war in Iraq, and plans for the renewed search for peace in the Middle East - would take place in the United Kingdom.

On the return flight to London Mr Blair and his senior advisers apparently decided on the potential value-added extra of inviting Mr Bush to make his first visit to Northern Ireland and securing his endorsement of the two governments' proposals to rescue the Belfast Agreement.

Downing Street confirmed that Mr Blair and Mr Bush have discussed the Northern Ireland question on several occasions, and cited next week's visit as "an example of how peace can be taken forward in seemingly impossible situations." A spokesman said: "We want that spirit applied in the Middle East peace process."

Mr Blair and President Bush are expected to review the war, preparations for the publication of the so-called "road map" for a Middle East settlement, and plans for the interim administration and future government of Iraq in a post-conflict situation.

The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, is expected to join the Prime Minister and President on Tuesday, when they will also see the leaders of the main pro-agreement parties.

Downing Street confirmed that this would not represent a negotiation and that plans remained for Mr Blair and Mr Ahern to return on Thursday, the fifth anniversary of the Good Friday accord, to publish their proposals on the way ahead.

This will be the third summit meeting between Mr Blair and President Bush in recent weeks, following their gathering in the Azores and their Camp David discussions last week. The Downing Street spokesman said: "They found the meetings in the Azores and Camp David very helpful in the development of our strategy on the military, diplomatic and humanitarian fronts."

Anticipating "an important week in the Northern Ireland peace process" the spokesman added: "It will be useful to get the US President's support for our efforts to encourage the leaders to the acts of completion the Prime Minister has outlined."