FRANÇOIS HOLLANDE is the favourite to win the French Socialist Party’s presidential nomination tomorrow when voters choose the party’s candidate to face Nicolas Sarkozy in the 2012 election.
Mr Hollande’s hopes were boosted yesterday when Arnaud Montebourg, who finished third in the first round of the primary last weekend, gave the former party leader his public support.
Mr Hollande won 39 per cent of the first-round vote, with Martine Aubry trailing him on 31 per cent. The long-time rivals will go head-to-head tomorrow in a play-off in which all French voters are entitled to vote if they pay one euro and sign a charter of left-wing values.
Mr Montebourg’s declaration of support is a blow to Ms Aubry, who felt her left-wing credentials made her a more natural ideological fit with Mr Montebourg, who champions “de-globalisation” and protectionism.
Emphasising that it was a purely personal stance and not an instruction to those who had voted for him, Mr Montebourg said that he saw little difference between Mr Hollande and Ms Aubry but that the former would more easily unite the left.
"I want to help the left win the battle against Nicolas Sarkozy," he told Le Monde. Opinion polls suggest both socialist candidates could beat Mr Sarkozy next year, but Mr Hollande's lead over the president is wider than Ms Aubry's.
Mr Hollande now has the backing of all four candidates who were knocked out of the race last weekend.
Ms Aubry has described her contest with Mr Hollande as a choice between “the soft left” and “the tough left”, but both are seen as representing the party’s centre ground. Both are ideological apostles of the former head of the European Commission Jacques Delors – Ms Aubry is his daughter and Mr Hollande his protege.
Ms Aubry has used her experience to her advantage, pointing out that her rival has never served in government, but Mr Hollande has gained momentum by presenting himself as the figure most likely to unify a party frequently riven by internal rivalries.