From Brian O'Connor at Cheltenham
Not since the legendary Golden Miller won five Gold Cups in the 1930s has a horse won five times in-a-row at Cheltenham: That's the size of Istabraq's task today, and he has to do it in a sixth year.
The absolute certainty, the complete banker, is that the pall of "if only" and "what if" will hang over the Smurfit Champion Hurdle if Istabraq doesn't win this afternoon.
Some of the most futile words in the language will tease the thousands of fans who have followed the great horse to the brink of history. If only the Festival had gone ahead last year? What if Istabraq had been able to run and win his fourth championship?
It would be quite an experience to witness an entire racecourse reduced to such frustration. Anyone with even a whiff of sentiment will hope it won't happen.
Just four horses, with the evocative names of Hatton's Grace, Sir Ken, Persian War and See You Then, have won the Champion Hurdle three times. If Istabraq eclipses them all, what price retirement? He will have nothing left to prove.
His trainer, Aidan O'Brien, played down such speculation over the weekend - the long career of a horse with such a fragile temperament is one of O'Brien's biggest achievements.
The doubters have been parading all winter but there is little room for argument that Istabraq can be not quite at his best today and still win.
The 10-year-old superstar would have been an unbackable odds-on favourite had not foot- and-mouth intervened last year. Today the bookies will be chalking up 2 to 1 and feeling brave with it.
Age, rumour, and only one race this season has presented the thousands of Irish punters with a betting proposition that combines both sentiment and value. We're talking Cheltenham heaven.
The value comes from the opposition. Not since Flakey Dove's 1994 win has there been a weaker-looking Champion Hurdle field.
Take Tony McCoy and Martin Pipe off Valiriamix and he would be at least double the odds he is now. Landing Light to many eyes is a glorified handicapper, Bilboa is regularly beaten in France and it can be argued that it's Hors La Loi III who presents the most credible danger to Istabraq.
Even so, Hors La Loi is not the horse he was when runner-up two years ago. Istabraq might not be the horse he was then either, but there was four lengths between them. Get your betting boots on and bank on a repeat. Then use the cash to celebrate history.
The JP McManus camp will be hoping to have even more Festival readies to lump on Istabraq after Like-A-Butterfly goes in the opener, the Gerrard Supreme Novices' Hurdle. The race has a record of McManus-owned favourites flopping but the Irish fans will be feeling very sore if this unbeaten mare cannot break the trend.
Given just a hint of give in the ground her credentials look impeccable, but she will be a very short price. Maybe Adamant Approach can provide a value each-way alternative for the Irish.
If Moscow Flyer jumps soundly he will have a major chance in the Arkle, but two falls this season and the prospect of the downhill fence make Fondmort a safer option.
Calladine will be a popular fancy in the Pertemps Final but a better value alternative could be Surprising, who is quietly fancied at the Philip Hobbs yard.
Paul Carberry may be the one to provide an Irish flavour to the winner of the William Hill Chase, courtesy of the progressive Frenchman's Creek.