SERBIA: Ultra-nationalists led by a war crimes suspect behind bars in The Hague came first in yesterday's Serbian general election, capturing 27.5 per cent of the vote, according to a projection by independent election monitors.
Three main pro-democracy parties together received 41.5 per cent, indicating they would be able to prevent Mr Vojislav Seselj's Radical Party from taking power, figures provided by the Centre for Free Elections and Democracy (CESID) showed.
An alliance of two small pro-monarchy parties won 8.2 percent while the Socialist Party of former president Slobodan Milosevic, also in jail in The Hague facing war crimes charges, scored 7.6 per cent, according to the projection.
The Radical Party, whose leader commanded a paramilitary group accused of committing atrocities in Croatia and Bosnia in the early 1990s, has benefited from voter disenchantment with the pro-Western reformers who ousted Milosevic in 2000.
The pro-democracy parties that united against Milosevic but later split should be able to stop the Radicals taking power if they band together and work with the pro-monarchy alliance but such a coalition is likely to be unstable, analysts say.
CESID analyst Mr Zoran Lucic said the projection was based on results from around half of a representative sample of polling stations that the monitoring agency had selected.
CESID said more than 56 per cent of voters had cast their ballots by 7 p.m., an hour before polls closed, indicating turnout could be the highest in any national poll for years.
"This is the highest turnout since September 2000 when Milosevic lost power," said Mr Lucic of the non-governmental Centre for Free Elections and Democracy (CESID).
Analysts said a high turnout could harm the Radicals as it would reduce their final share of the vote. The Radicals have many disciplined supporters who always vote while other parties rely more on moderates who sometimes stay away from the polls. The reformers who united to oust ex-president Milosevic in 2000 should be able to form a coalition government, diplomats and analysts say. With deep divisions on main issues, such an alliance may struggle to push ahead with stalled reforms needed to attract crucial foreign investment.
Whoever gets to power will face daunting challenges in one of Europe's poorest countries, with those lucky enough to have a job living on an average gross salary of around $300 per month.
"I don't expect milk and honey. I just hope I will find a job," Ms said Biljana Manasijevic (50) as she cast her ballot.
The Radicals have denounced what they call "brutal capitalist" reforms and promised cheaper bread, capitalising on many people's disappointment with three years of market-oriented economic and political change and corruption among politicians.
Mr Nikolic came first in a presidential election last month which was declared invalid due to low turnout. There is no minimum turnout requirement for the general election.
Mr Seselj, who once said Serbia's enemies should have their eyes gouged out with rusty spoons, is an old ally of Milosevic and like him is accused of war crimes during the Croatian and Bosnian conflicts in 1991-95.
The new government is likely to face Western demands to cooperate with the UN court in The Hague or risk losing crucial aid.