Group photo likely to be the only lasting memory of Annapolis talks

Middle East: The Israeli-Palestinian conflict won't be solved by a one-day meeting of 50 states, writes Michael Jansen.

Middle East:The Israeli-Palestinian conflict won't be solved by a one-day meeting of 50 states, writes Michael Jansen.

Arab rulers decided they had no option but to accept George W Bush's invitation to attend the Annapolis meeting which begins with dinner tonight and tomorrow attempts to relaunch negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis.

Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas arrived in Washington yesterday, ahead of the talks in Annapolis, the Maryland state capital.

But the Arabs are reluctant participants. Firstly, they feel the Bush administration did not take into account their sensitivities when scheduling the meeting for the week after the US Thanksgiving holiday. Sixty years ago, the Truman administration exerted strong pressure on the UN General Assembly to postpone its vote on the resolution to partition Palestine between Palestinians and Jewish colonists from before the feast until afterwards because Washington needed to secure enough votes for adoption. Over the long weekend, the US persuaded enough vulnerable opponents to achieve majority approval, thereby giving legal status to the Jewish state that emerged through war. For the Arabs, particularly Palestinians, these are black days. For Israel, this is a time of thanksgiving.

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Secondly, the Arabs are not convinced the meeting is a serious attempt to restart negotiations frozen since Mr Bush took office nearly seven years ago. By keeping it to just one day - and inviting 40 to 50 countries from the Arab world, Europe and Asia, the Bush administration guaranteed discussion of core issues will be minimal and the closing photo will be shot through a wide angle lens, transforming the meeting into the photo-op the sceptical Arabs predicted it would be.

Arab commentators argue that if Mr Bush had been serious about injecting life into the moribund peace process, he would have restricted the list of invitees and rejected Israel's demand that negotiations must be bilateral rather than brokered by a third party or parties, notably the US and, perhaps, Europe.

Unless there is an honest broker, Palestinians and Israelis will never reach an agreement even though the broad outlines of a settlement have been known for decades. This deal would involve Israeli evacuation of nearly all of the land occupied in 1967 and the creation of a Palestinian state. The Bush administration has shunned involvement as broker since it took office because it would have to exert major pressure on Israel to achieve this objective.

Another reason expectations are low is that the road map remains the basis for negotiations.

This plan for the stage-by-stage emergence of a Palestinian state has been deadlocked since its launch in June 2003.

During the first phase, the Palestinians were meant to end violence against Israel and disarm and disband militant groups.

Israel was supposed to halt settlement, road and wall construction in the occupied territories. Instead, Israel stepped up these activities, claiming the Palestinians had to end violence before it would carry out its part of the bargain.

Although the two sides have said they are prepared to jump over the first stage of the road map, the plan should have been scrapped because key Israeli politicians continue to insist on the linkage as the basis for progress.

Due to the failure of the road map, the Palestinians and Israelis were meant to come up with a new document, or work plan, ahead of the Annapolis event.

But they were unable to do this. Palestinians want to discuss the core issues of borders, refugees, Jerusalem and Israeli settlements, lay down the parameters of a deal and fix a timetable.

If he does not return to Ramallah with progress on these demands, President Mahmoud Abbas will lose all credibility.

But Israel does not want to discuss the core issues. It wants to sort out day-to-day problems and confidence-building measures.

Arab rulers and analysts contend the event is designed to project the impression that Mr Bush is determined to promote negotiations in exchange for Arab support for his campaigns to pacify Iraq and punish Iran.