The ECB is making life difficult for Germany – the state which ensured its independence, writes DEREK SCALLYin Berlin
THESE ARE interesting times for Berlin’s relationship with the European Central Bank.
The Frankfurt-based institution has Germany to thank for its prized independent status – intended to free it from satisfying the whims of politicians.
Transferring the politically independent ethos of the Bundesbank to the new central bank would, it was hoped, not just guarantee the euro’s stability on the markets but boost its credibility with the European public, in particular the doubtful, deutschmark-mourning Germans.
Now Frankfurt and Berlin are in disagreement over how best to deal with Greece: a technical difference of opinion or something more? Berlin officials say it is business as usual, describing the Greek row as “not a clash about which direction we should be going but how”.
German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble has called for private sector inclusion in any further Greek aid to eliminate moral hazard – being seen to reward investors who bought risky, high yield Greek bonds – while being seen to share the burden to appease bailout-fatigued German voters.
“Germany, it has to be remembered, has a spokesman role for other countries who think the same on this, like Finland and the Netherlands,” said Carsten Lüdemann, capital markets analyst with Deka bank.
The European Central Bank argues that any actions that even smell of default would scare the markets and cause a “credit event” with unpredictable consequences for the euro zone it is charged with defending. And so every move by Berlin for private creditors to make a “substantial, significant” contribution to a deal has met with such intransigence from Frankfurt – so much so that one official in Berlin joked that “the Taliban are more flexible” than the bank.
Berlin and Frankfurt insisted yesterday that they both favour a “voluntary” inclusion of the private sector; the outstanding issue seems to be how to define voluntary.
It’s not the first disagreement over the euro zone crisis: a year ago a rift emerged over the bank’s decision to buy sovereign bonds of struggling countries on the secondary markets.
That decision contributed to Bundesbank bank head Axel Weber withdrawing from the European Central Bank succession stakes.
It continues to reverberate in the current conflict, too.
“When you create an institution with as much independence as possible you are always going to come to a conflict,” said Jürgen Gaulke of the Ifo economic institute in Munich.
The current conflict has a new quality, he suggests, because, with the bond-buying programme, the European Central Bank went beyond its limits to become a player in a high-stakes poker game to stabilise the euro zone.
“The ECB is not sitting with pride on a healthy pile of chips but sitting anxiously on them and doesn’t want any further bad risk on its balance sheet,” said Mr Gaulke. “Now the ECB is insisting that politicians take back the financing of stability measures.” ECB calls for a political solution for Greece are clearly audible, but come at the worst possible moment for Germany. A year ago Berlin had to agree an unpopular bailout days before an important state election; now it is debating the terms of a second rescue deal three weeks before the constitutional court hears complaints that such assistance violates EU no-bailout rules.
While there is rueful acceptance in Berlin that the ECB is doing what Bonn programmed it to do, some ECB watchers sense a change of tone from the Frankfurt headquarters.
“The ECB’s approach is very aggressive and getting more so every day,” said one leading economist who asked not to be named. “An old-school central bank would never have reacted like this.”
Helping the Greeks: What the Germans say
If there are doubts about the ability of Greece to pay back its debt and we have to win time with a new package, then the participation of the private sector in the solution is unavoidable. – German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble
We shouldn't argue here in a nationalistic way . . . the (financial assistance) debate is being dominated at the moment by poorly informed people. This applies as much to finance journalists as academic circles . . . in which some risk losing their reputation. – ECB chief economist Jürgen Stark
With its threat . . . the ECB has gone beyond its mandate and created the impression, unnecessarily that they are only interested in securing their own holdings of Greek sovereign bonds." – Economist Clemens Fuest, adviser to the German finance ministry, on ECB warnings over private sector interest in the Greek rescue plan
There can be no objection to a voluntary extension of maturities. But . . . if a maturity extension is forced upon investors, the risks are significantly greater than the possible benefits. Then a credit event would be unleashed, which would pose great risks for financial stability. – Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann, an ECB governing council member