German manufacturing data offers some hope

A better-than-expected rise in German manufacturing orders in October provides further hope that Europe's largest economy will…

A better-than-expected rise in German manufacturing orders in October provides further hope that Europe's largest economy will avoid recession, economists said.

Manufacturing orders in Germany rose a seasonally adjusted 1.1 per cent in October compared to September and were up an unadjusted 4.2 per cent year-on-year, according to preliminary data from the economy ministry.

The market consensus was for a seasonally adjusted rise of 0.7 per cent in October from September, and for an unadjusted rise of 2.9 per cent year-on-year.

"I think it's in line with the forecast that we will see at least some growth in fourth and first quarters, and not a recession as some people are saying," said Commerzbank economist Mr Ralph Solveen.

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"It doesn't mean we're in front of a big upswing. If you look at the trend in the last few months you can see it is moving sideways," he said.

"It is a slight glimmer of hope," said Morgan Stanley economist Ms Elga Bartsch. "But don't take this as a sign of a turnaround, because it isn't.

"The numbers were clearly better than we thought they would be. But as the economy ministry said in the press release, it is largely due to bulk orders. That means that on the demand side, this is unlikely to be repeated next month".

PA