The number of Germans out of work will bounce back well above the four-million mark this winter after a seasonal upturn in the euro-zone's largest economy that lowered unemployment this month, according to analyst reports published in Germany's Berliner Zeitungnewspaper today.
Investment bank experts told the daily the numbers of German unemployed could reach up to 4.7 million, a jump from September estimates published yesterday by the paper Die Weltshowing a jobless population below the politically sensitive level of four million, at 3.97 million.
Unless the economy picks up this winter, said Commerzbank economist Mr Ulrich Ramm, "we will have 4.5 million unemployed by the beginning of the year" 2003.
Deutsche Bank economist Mr Norbert Walter predicted jobless numbers closer to 4.4 million, whereas Mr Martin Huefner of HypoVereinsbank said Germany would see "well over four million" workers claiming unemployment benefits.
Mr Huefner added that weather factors would play an important role in determining the state of the economy this winter.
The analysts predicted a growth rate of 0.3 per cent in 2002 and 1.3 per cent for 2003. Germany has officially dropped its growth estimates for 2003 to 1.5 per cent from 2.5 per cent, according to the paper.
AFP