General relief that devolution deadline has been set

A smack of firm leadership from Tony Blair has breathed new life into what seemed like a dying peace process

A smack of firm leadership from Tony Blair has breathed new life into what seemed like a dying peace process. As the parties gathered at Downing Street last Friday for another round of meetings, the mood was glum. Mr Gerry Adams was particularly gloomy beforehand, announcing that the UDA and LVF ceasefires were over.

The mood behind the scenes in Sinn Fein was equally bleak. Indeed there was a slight question-mark at one stage over their attendance on Friday.

But in the peace process, the darkest hour is always just before dawn. Mr Blair had clearly decided that enough was enough: an agreement was approved by referendum last year and the recent Irish Times RTE poll conducted by Ulster Marketing Surveys showed that if anything, public support was increasing.

The problem was at the political level: it was time to knock heads together and that's exactly what Mr Blair has done. Devolution to Scotland and Wales was due on July 1st; why should Northern Ireland be allowed to lag behind?

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The Hillsborough Declaration was an attempt to make the IRA accept the need for decommissioning before the transfer of powers by putting it in the context of a day of reconciliation with sweeteners like the simultaneous closure of barracks and scaling down the security presence in the North.

While some Sinn Fein elements thought the plan had potential, it was a bridge too far for the people on the paramilitary side. As pragmatists, Blair and Ahern turned to the next available option: persuade the unionists to enter government with Sinn Fein without an advance hand-over of weapons.

The document prepared at Friday's meeting was a single A4 sheet of paper, the key section of which read as follows: "All parties agree to the full implementation of all aspects of the Good Friday Agreement including the objective of achieving total disarmament and complete withdrawal of all weapons from politics in Ireland.

"They accept the issue of arms must be finally and satisfactorily settled and will do what they can to achieve decommissioning of all paramilitary arms within the time-frame set down in the Agreement, in the context of the implementation of the overall settlement. The International Commission on Decommissioning will now begin a period of intensive discussions with all parties and report back on progress before 30th June. All parties anticipate, without prejudice to their clear positions on this issue, a devolution of powers by 30th June."

There is new language here to make it easier for the unionists to swallow the fact that prior decommissioning is almost certainly not on the cards, but there was no great enthusiasm in evidence at Saturday's meeting of the Ulster Unionist assembly team. "We reserve our position," senior party members said last night.

While a further meeting of the Assembly group today has not been ruled out, the members are due to have one of their regular meetings tomorrow. There is a reluctance to take any major risks in advance of the European elections on June 10th. Already last night Mr Robert McCartney was challenging Mr Trimble to "explain his position" on the Downing Street deal.

Given the difficulties already attending the candidacy of Mr Jim Nicholson, senior unionists are reluctant to do anything which makes their people feel edgy.

Contacts were continuing over the weekend. Having taken a firm line with the unionists, it remains to be seen if Mr Blair sticks to it. Had the unionist Assembly team bought the Downing Street paper on Saturday, it is understood there would have been a major statement from the two prime ministers announcing that the d'Hondt system for designating ministerial positions among the various parties was to be triggered this week.

When it became clear that the unionists were holding back, it was thought likely there would be no statement at all from Downing Street and it came as something of a surprise when Mr Blair named June 30th as the deadline for devolution. Unionists have been used to a more compliant posture on London's part, with the usual understanding and sympathy for Mr Trimble's internal difficulties.

It does not come as a great shock to hear that unionist nerves were not good over the weekend. Not only had London taken its distance from them but there were reports of nationalist claims that d'Hondt would be triggered early this week. Republicans and nationalists want to see ministers named as soon as possible and there is a special urgency deriving from the fact that the changes in Articles 2 and 3 were originally meant to come into effect by this weekend at the latest.

Last night senior unionists said there was a significant space between the June 10th poll and the June 30th deadline. Three weeks is a long time in politics, as it were. Undoubtedly the relationship between the UUP and Sinn Fein is a constructive one nowadays. Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness are making the most of their chance to persuade the unionists that they are serious about making the process work. Mr Trimble's principal lieutenants will have a critical role over the coming days, particularly Mr John Taylor and Sir Reg Empey. The consensus is that Sir Reg's influence will be crucial in swaying the middle ground of unionist politics. "Empey is the key man," as one insider put it.

"This could not have gone on indefinitely," senior political sources in Dublin said last night. The governments and parties could not keep going around the mulberry bush forever. Nobody wanted to walk away because there was no viable alternative.

There was general relief that a deadline had been set. No doubt this extends to the US, which had been brought back into the picture with McGuinness's recent visit, which appears to have paid significant political dividends for Sinn Fein. In the meantime, well-wishers of the process will be crossing their fingers that "events on the ground" do not take a nasty turn.

Continuing attacks on nationalist homes and the reported targeting of senior Sinn Fein figures could lead to an incident which would damage the peace effort.

There is a question mark over Sinn Fein's ability to restrain the IRA if loyalists embark on a killing spree.

Certainly without Sinn Fein participation in government and the establishment of the other institutions in the agreement, that task would be near impossible, according to observers.

Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern have decided to concentrate minds in a last-ditch effort before the dangerous days in early July. In parallel, Mr Trimble continues his efforts to resolve the Drumcree impasse. The coming weeks may well decide whether he is to be the leader of a new pluralist society in Northern Ireland or a gallant loser like Brian Faulkner.