The Government chief whip, Mr Seamus Brennan, will today meet Kerry North TD Mr Denis Foley to discuss arrangements for his continuing support for the minority Fianna Fail-Progressive Democrat coalition.
The loss of Mr Foley does not pose an immediate danger to the stability of the Government. He is likely to follow the same route in supporting the Coalition from outside the fold as Ms Beverly Cooper-Flynn did last year. The Mayo TD lost the party whip when she voted against the Government on a Dail motion concerning her father, the then EU commissioner Mr Padraig Flynn, and the London-based property developer Mr Tom Gilmartin.
However, Mr Foley's departure has an added twist. Should the Members Interests Committee find he breached the Ethics in Public Office Act for voting on a Dail motion on the Moriarty tribunal in 1997 when he had an Ansbacher account, Mr Foley could face suspension from the Dail.
The maximum suspension of 30 sitting days would leave Mr Foley without speaking or voting rights ail until early July and possibly next October. In such a scenario, Mr Brennan would have to keep an extra-vigilant eye on the four Independents who have deals to support the Coalition.
Fianna Fail and the PDs currently have 79 seats. If - in the absence of Mr Foley - one of the four Independents voted with the Opposition the Government would face Dail defeat. The pivotal four are Mr Harry Blaney, Mr Tom Gildea, Mr Jackie Healy-Rea and Ms Mildred Fox.
To stay in office, the Government has no choice but to keep the four Independents sweet. All have pet projects in their constituencies contingent on their voting for Mr Ahern's Government. Every week when the Dail is sitting the Government chief whip is available to meet the group.
However, a test of what it would take for the Independents to give up their support is likely to arrive in the coming month as Ms Fox's abortion issue deadline nears. The Wicklow TD wants confirmation from the Government before the end of next month on what it plans to do on the abortion issue.
The Taoiseach's recent comments on the subject are likely to have been made in the context of Ms Fox's threat that, if by the end of next month, the Government decides "to go the legislative route on abortion, I will withdraw my support immediately". Should Ms Fox jump ship, pressure would come on the other Independents to follow. Mr Blaney has openly supported calls for an abortion referendum, while Mr Gildea has said he favours a "united stand" among the Independents on the issue.
To date, the Government position has been that there will be no movement while the All-Party Committee on the Constitution is deliberating on the recommendations in the Green Paper on Abortion. The success or otherwise of Ms Fox will be evident at the end of next month. Indeed, it has been difficult to gauge the extent to which the Independents and their constituencies have gained from the level of access available to them since June 1997.
The present arrangements are different in an important respect from the so-called "Gregory deal" in 1982 between Fianna Fail and the Dublin Independent TD Mr Tony Gregory. That deal was written down, signed in the presence of witnesses and read out on the record of the Dail.
Since the current Fianna Fail-PD Coalition was formed in June 1997, the Opposition parties have had little success in seeking information on the nature of the understanding which exists between the Government and the Independents.
A document released to The Irish Times under the Freedom of Information Act outlines the background to the arrangements entered into between Mr Ahern and the four Independents.
In a supplementary answer to a parliamentary question last December - which was not read into the Dail record - Mr Ahern confirms "there is a definite understanding on their priorities between me as leader of Fianna Fail and the Independents who support the Government regarding their priorities".
A possible question was posed about whether there are any "written agreements or papers outlining an understanding with any or all of the Independents." The draft answer prepared for the Taoiseach noted that "any papers concerning Independent deputies in relation to their decision to support the Fianna Fail-Progressive Democrat Coalition was received and dealt with by me in my capacity as leader of Fianna Fail".
The fact that Mr Ahern considers the deals with the Independents as having been concluded with him as Fianna Fail leader is unusual. If backroom deals have been done to fund projects in Wicklow, Kerry North, Donegal North West and Donegal South East, what does the Tanaiste and PD leader, Ms Harney, know about them?
The "understanding" between the Taoiseach and the four Independents may have been so constructed to preclude any possibility of the release of documentation under the Freedom of Information Act, given that papers between the Independents and the leader of a political party would be outside the scope of the legislation.