The mood at the Fine Gael think-in was a mixture of joy and apprehension, writes DEAGLÁN DE BRÉADÚN
IS FINE Gael finally about to come in from the cold? The party has spent years in the wilderness and even its brief stint in office from 1994 to 1997 was the result of parliamentary manoeuvring rather than a decision of the electorate.
The party has not come directly to power via a general election since 1982. But such are the vagaries of Irish politics that the next battle looks like being a one-sided affair, with Enda Kenny’s party firmly in the ascendant.
The mental state of parliamentary party members as they assembled in Cavan this week for their annual “think-in” could best be described as “delighted uncertainty” or “joyous apprehension”.
The opinion polls and the local elections last June have told them they are virtually certain to be the biggest party the next time, if the people get a chance to decide on the matter in the near future.
However, the economy is in a mess and Ireland (or “Dire Land” as the Financial Times calls it) is suffering more than most from the effects of the international crisis.
A similar gathering of TDs, Senators and MEPs took place this time last year in Co Clare. The mood on that occasion was one of expectancy as compared with the current nervous jubilation.
Although Kenny is not securing the kind of poll figures that his party colleagues would like to see, insiders say there is no threat to his leadership.
There is an acknowledgment of his skills in the area of party management and the fact that he has brought Fine Gael from the doldrums to the cusp of power.
The fact that the obvious alternative, finance spokesman Richard Bruton, has shown no immediate interest in taking over the job is a help. And as Kenny pointed out on yesterday’s Morning Ireland, Mary Harney was scoring high poll results at a time when the Progressive Democrats were attracting minimal support.
The one name you didn’t want to mention in Cavan this week was Alan Dukes. The former party leader had criticised Fine Gael policy on the banks as “cumbersome” and lacking in clarity. It is an understatement to say this was not appreciated by his former colleagues and the type of venom normally reserved for Fianna Fáil was redirected towards the author of the “Tallaght Strategy”.
The big question on everyone’s mind was, of course, the likely date of the next general election. There was no unanimity on this, with some suggesting it would come before the end of the year while others felt sometime in the first half of 2010 was more likely.
Only a very few believed the Government could last any longer than that. Having had to put up with secure Government majorities for a 10-year period, the main opposition party is taking a keen interest in the waverings of the Green Party and FF backbenchers.
Thinking aloud, most will say that the Greens are unlikely to vote themselves out of office. When would they get another chance to be in government and to implement even a modest element of Green Party policy? But there is an awareness at the same time that events can take an unexpected turn.
The pronouncements of Fianna Fáil backbenchers excite more interest and expectation. These TDs are being closely watched for any sign that they will jump ship on the National Asset Management Agency (Nama) legislation or, more likely, the forthcoming budget.
Looking to the longer term, there is the possibility that, having got Nama on the statute book and approved the budget, the Soldiers of Destiny might move against their leader if the polls keep telling them there is no way Brian Cowen can lead them to victory in the next general election.
As regards Nama, the Fine Gael parliamentary party seems content to leave it to Bruton to make the running. He is not for turning and the watchword of Fine Gael in general at the moment is, “steady as she goes”. If the polls are right, power will fall into the party’s lap before too long.
And then their problems will really begin.