US Federal Reserve policy-makers may break the chain of interest-rate rises they began two years ago today.
The US central bank faces the challenge of ensuring that its string of rate rises do not slow the economy more than that is needed to reverse accelerating inflation, fanned by soaring energy costs and an upswing in labour costs.
Policy-setting members of the Federal Open Market Committee began meeting at (1.30pm Irish time) - a half hour earlier than usual - and are to announce a decision about 7.15pm.
Just as the meeting began, the government reported that second-quarter productivity, or hourly output per worker, slowed to a 1.1 per cent annual rate of advance from 4.3 per cent in the first quarter.
The key reason was a 4.2 per cent jump in the annual pace of labour costs, the largest since the end of 2004 and well above the first quarter's 2.5 per cent - a late reminder to the Fed about inflation's durability despite a moderating expansion.
Since June 2004, the Fed has increased its federal funds rate 17 straight times in quarter-percentage-point moves, bringing it to 5.25 per cent from a 46-year low of 1 per cent it had hit while the Fed fended off the risk of deflation.
"A sustainable, non-inflationary expansion is likely to involve a modest reduction in the growth of economic activity from rapid pace of the past three years," Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told the US Congress last month in semi-annual testimony on the state of the economy.
He said the Fed had to consider "possible future effects of previous policy actions - that is, of policy effects 'still in the pipeline.'"
Some analysts believe the Fed should raise rates today, if only to take out insurance that could be cancelled should economic growth keep losing altitude.