Fear about paramilitaries in wake of UDP's defeat

Gary McMichael had formally conceded defeat. He shook hands with his winning male opponents

Gary McMichael had formally conceded defeat. He shook hands with his winning male opponents. Then he embraced the SDLP's Patricia Lewsley, who defeated him in the battle for the sixth and final seat in the unionist heartland of Lagan Valley.

Pale but composed after 13 hours at the count, he then faced the BBC's camera for a live interview on Newsnight. The abiding image for those who saw him on television was of a wax-like figure, distressed but working hard at being conciliatory while the world witnessed his darkest hour.

To journalists interviewing him at the count centre in Dromore, Co Down, the earnest young man was calm and stoic, but concerned about the Ulster Defence Association, the largest loyalist paramilitary group in Northern Ireland and linked to his Ulster Democratic Party. It had been "unanchored" from the peace process, he said.

As the North pondered the results, Mr McMichael, who is engaged to be married, was the one person everybody was disappointed to see failing to be elected, no matter what their political persuasion. He echoed their sentiments: "Everybody knew how important it was for us to be involved."

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Senior RUC officers certainly know how important his party's involvement was. They don't doubt his personal commitment to the peace process or that of his party, but are greatly concerned by the reaction of the UDA. One senior officer said that things might hold up until prisoner releases begin. But UDA members who feel marginalised "won't be sitting around filing their nails" when they get out, he said.

Mr McMichael has never been a paramilitary himself, but he understands them, represents them and has articulated their views in the talks process. He is no stranger to violent death and was just 19 when his father, the then UDA leader John McMichael, was murdered by the IRA in 1987. John McMichael had published Common Sense, a political document for the future of Northern Ireland government which became the basis for the party's stance in the talks. The younger McMichael became a prominent loyalist figure in the years following his father's death and in the run-up to the Stormont talks.

The Progressive Unionist Party's spokesman, Mr David Ervine, who won a seat in East Belfast, described the UDP's failure to gain seats as "devastating". The Northern Secretary, Dr Mo Mowlam, rang Mr McMichael on Saturday to express her sympathies for his party's lack of success.

So why did the party, whose leader is considered genuinely popular, fail to win any seats? Other political leaders refuse to comment on the record but say privately that the party's support base is purely paramilitary and that is the reason they didn't win.

Sinn Fein and the PUP are servicing the needs of their community, holding clinics and continually expanding their support base, according to one senior loyalist. The UDP did not do that: it started holding clinics, but did not stick with them. Nor was its position helped by the appearance of one of the UDA's most notorious killers, Michael Stone, in the King's Hall to support the agreement.

Gary McMichael needed to double his vote from 3,000 in the Forum elections of 1996 to be in with a chance of a seat. In the end, his first-preference vote rose slightly to 3,725 and with transfers reached 4,970 in the final count.

There are suggestions that some sort of accommodation might be made for the UDP to keep its supporters "on side", but there are no indications of what that could be.

In the meantime, politicians on all sides say that the party, which has a number of local councillors - Mr McMichael is on Lisburn Council - will have to work to build up its base and represent its supporters at that level.

In the meantime, Gary McMichael will have to work hard to retain the support and backing of a very volatile paramilitary movement.