The EU's strategy for enlargement became clearer this month. The Luxembourg European Council summit endorsed the Commission's "Agenda 2000" programme to take in the newly emerging democracies from Eastern Europe and Cyprus. Accession negotiations will start in the spring with Cyprus, Hungary, Poland, Estonia, the Czech Republic and Slovenia and the door will be left open to other Eastern European countries, not yet considered ready to join the EU, such as Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Lithuania and Latvia.
Earlier in the month MEPs approved of this approach, on the understanding that all applicant countries have the right to open accession negotiations at the same time during 1998. However, it is recognised that the time-span for negotiations will vary from country to country, depending on their ability to meet the criteria for membership, laid down in the 1993 Copenhagen summit. These are: the establishment of stable institutions to guarantee democracy, the rule of law, human rights and the protection of minorities; creating a market economy capable of withstanding the pressure of the single market; and acceptance of existing EU responsibilities.
Progress in the negotiations will depend on the Commission's annual assessment of progress towards specific targets set out in "pre-accession partnership agreements". But, as a recent report from the House of Lords points out, it will take 25 years at reasonable growth-rates for incomes in the new countries to reach just half the present average of the Fifteen, even with substantial economic assistance from the EU's budget.
The Commission plans to allocate some Ecu 21bn from the EU's budget over the period 2000-2006 to the East European countries in preparation for membership. Substantial investment will be needed in modernising industry, agriculture, transport and developing energy supplies as well as ensuring effective environmental protection. Furthermore, the EU will be insisting on respect for internationally acceptable standards in countries dependent on nuclear power. The EU has already insisted on the closure of potentially dangerous nuclear power stations in Bulgaria and Lithuania in exchange for European backed loans.
Each applicant country will be expected gradually to adopt existing EU legislation. Emphasis will be placed on the adoption of some 1,400 pieces of key single market legislation before accession. All border disputes involving the applicant states, such as that between Hungary and Slovakia over the Danube dam, and the maritime dispute between Lithuania and Latvia, should be resolved before membership, if necessary through the International Court of Justice.
MEPs are aware that this enlargement will be the most far-reaching since the inception of European integration. It completes a postwar economic and political process, following the collapse of communism. If developments progress smoothly they should lead to unparalleled security and stability for the peoples of Europe. If the opportunity is missed, there is a danger of an increase in tensions and instability on the EU's present borders. While some MEPs were concerned that the negotiations process could lead to discrimination against countries not in the first wave, both foreign affairs committee chairmen, Tom Spencer (UK, EPP) and Gary Titley (UK, PES) emphasised that all applicant countries should be involved in the enlargement process. If the process were not handled properly, there was a danger the EU would deteriorate into an ineffectual body, losing sight of its direction.