Society will be shaken to its foundations when world oil supply goes into decline and the impact will be even greater as governments struggle to cope with climate change, an oil industry expert has claimed.
"That is going to hit society with a big, seismic shock," stated Dr Jeremy Leggett, a former oil industry consultant and later Greenpeace campaigner. "I hope I am wrong, but I don't believe we can avoid the third great oil crisis. We will be mobilising as though for war."
Dr Leggett last night delivered an Academy Timeslecture at Dublin Castle, entitled Half gone: Peak Oil meets Climate Change. He outlined the challenges facing governments as oil production goes into decline.
"I am one of a growing body of people including people within the oil industry who believe that there is less oil out there than is believed by the public," Dr Leggett said prior to his lecture.
Current oil production has reached about 85 million barrels per day and he believes peak production will be reached some time between 2008 and 2012. "There are people who believe we are past peak oil already."
Most western countries draw up national plans based on a false assumption there will be growing and affordable supplies of oil. Unfortunately, this was not going to be the case, Dr Leggett said.
He described the chaos caused in Britain during a 2001 oil tanker drivers' strike. Nearly one-third of petrol stations closed within days, with mile-long queues at stations that remained open. Within a week, supermarkets warned they would not be able to maintain food supplies.
"The country was on its knees in a matter of days. This gives us a feeling for what could happen as oil supplies decline."
Combining the effects of peak oil and climate change will make matters worse. This will force governments into "really serious choices", Dr Leggett, who heads solar energy company Solarcentury, said.
However, he believes the right choices will be made and cleaner, renewable energy will come on stream. "We need national emergency plans," he stated. "This is going to be a test of the fibre of civil society. We really can run the world in a different way," he added.
